How Many Wizards and Witches are There?

[danajsparks.livejournal.com]

I've been playing around some more with numbers to try to estimate the percentage of muggle-borns in the wizarding world, and one of the problems I've run into is that I can't decide how many wizards and witches there are overall. I've read two excellent essays on the matter by Jodel and Whitehound. Jodel estimates that there are between 3600 and 4800 wizards and witches, depending on the average lifespan, which she guesses is between 90 and 120. Whitehound argues that there are closer 10,000 wizards and witches altogether in the British Isles.

The problem is that Rowling gives us totally arbitrary and inconsistent numbers, even within canon. In an early interview, she said that there were 1000 students at Hogwarts, which would be about 143 students in each class. In a later interview, she reduced that number to 600 students, or about 86 in each year.

In the early books, there is evidence that there are about 40 students in Harry's year. There are 20 broomsticks for the combined Gryffindor/Slytherin fyling lessons and 20 pairs of earmuffs for the combined Gryffindor/Hufflepuff Herbology lessons on mandrakes. And, indeed, Rowling has said that she created 40 characters to be in Harry's class. 40 students per year would add up to 280 students altogether at Hogwarts. If the average wizarding lifespan of is about 100 years, then this would mean the total wizarding population is about 4000.

In yet another interview, Rowling said that the total wizarding population is about 3000. If the average lifespan is about 100 years, then this would mean there are 30 students per year at Hogwarts, adding up to a total student body of 210. This doesn't line up with the evidence in the earlier books of 40 students in Harry's class. However, by OOTP, 9 or 10 students seem to have "disappeared" from canon, suggesting that she maybe changed her mind and that the numbers of 20 broomsticks and 20 earmuffs are "inaccurate". As I said in my previous post, only 30 students from Rowling's class list are ever mentioned in the books. Moreover, in chapter 12 of OOTP, we read:

'It was murder,' said Harry. He could feel himself shaking. He had hardly spoken to anyone about this, least of all thirty eagerly listening classmates.

30 students plus Harry is too many for a combined Gryffindor/Hufflepuff or Gryffindor/Slytherin class, and it would be strange for a class to have three of the houses, but not four. So, either it's a combined Gryffindor/Ravenclaw class, and Ravenclaw has at least 21 students (16 of whom are never named in the books), or it's a class with all four houses, and 9 students are "missing" from the class.

Based on how Hogwarts operates, a total student body of 210 or 280 students makes much more sense than the 600 or 1000 figures that Rowling has suggested in interviews. There's only one professor in each subject to teach all of those students. When I was in high school, my teachers taught 120-150 students each, so even the lowest figure of 210 is rather unrealistic.

However, Whitehound argues that a total wizarding population of 3000 (or even 4000) does not make much sense when we look at overall wizarding society. It seems far too low. There are too many employees at the Ministry of Magic, too many shops in Diagon Alley, too many wards in St. Mungo's Hospital, etc. for there to only be 3000 wizards and witches in Britain. There were also far too many attendees at the World Cup for a wizarding population that small. In the real world, in 1994, there were a total of 61.5 million people in the British Isles, about 1.1% of the 5.6 billion in the whole world (Whitehound uses slightly different numbers). This means there would only be 272,727 wizards and witches in the world if there were 3000 in the British Isles. It seems unrealistic that 36% of the wizards and witches in the entire world would be at the World Cup. This is why Whitehound suggests that the population of Wizarding Britain is at least 10,000. (Read the second half of her essay for more a more detailed discussion). However, if this were the case, there would be about 100 students in each year of Hogwarts, if the average lifespan is 100 years.

So, how do we reconcile these various numbers? Which numbers do we use to determine the size of the population, and which numbers do we ignore? How many wizards and witches are there?

Comments

[danajsparks.livejournal.com]

How about the average class is 70 students per year, with as many as 100 and as few as 40 in any given year, plus, say, another 2 students per year who go abroad or are home-schooled? That gives us a total population of 7200.