[identity profile] terri-testing.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] deathtocapslock
We know that Arthur was an Order member, guarding the door to the DoM (and asleep on the job under an invisibility cloak which didn't hide him from a creature that hunted by heat and scent), when Voldemort's snake attacked him.

What did the Ministry think, and the average Prophet reader?


If Fudge had realized Arthur was there on Dumbledore's orders, surely he'd have sacked him?

In fact, why wasn't Arthur sacked anyway? What business had he to be in the Ministry at all in the middle of the night? Much less loitering suspiciously outside the DoM with an invisibility cloak?

And just what kind of security does the Ministry have, that Order members, Voldemort's slaves and pets, and schoolkids, can come and go after hours as they please? I've never worked anywhere that didn't lock up when everyone left.

In fact, aren't the Aurors based in the building? Shouldn't they have a night shift (what, Dark wizards never operate at night, you tell me?), and therefore a night shift on reception to check people in who have business there?

Finally, if Fudge didn't think the snake was Tom's pet, whose did he think it was and how did he think it got in and escaped?

Thoughts?
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Date: 2011-09-18 04:18 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mary-j-59.livejournal.com
Eek! No thoughts at all, except: Good heavens! You're right, Terri. It makes no sense at all that Order members can come and go as they please, never mind pets and schoolchildren. Unless, as some have surmised, Fudge was very firmly under Dumbledore's control, and Arthur and the other guards were there with his permission?

But even that wouldn't explain (to Fudge) how and why both Arthur and Bode were attacked, would it? After all, if Voldemort is well and truly dead, he cannot be sending either pet snakes or spies wielding the Imperius to attack the Order's agents.

And the security at the Ministry is laughable.

Date: 2011-09-18 04:49 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
Of the Order, who participated in 'Prophecy Watch'?

During the summer, I'd say the list was: Moody, Kingsley, Remus, Tonks, Arthur, Bill, Elphias Doge, Dedalus Diggle, Sturgis Podmore, Emmeline Vance, Hestia Jones, Minerva and Mundungus. (Hagrid was out of the country, Severus had to be available to Tom, Sirius was locked up at 12GP, Molly was supervising 12GP, Arabella was stationed in Little Whinging, and it is canon that Moody never saw Aberforth since July 1981 so I don't see how he could have been involved.) 13 people. Of these at least 3 were Ministry employees and Elphias had some kind of Ministry ties.

Once school started Minerva was taken off the rota but Molly took her place. Sturgis was arrested, leaving only 12 people. (Can anyone make an argument that any more people were on the watch list?)

Perhaps the shifts were arranged such that the night shift was given to someone who had a legitimate reason to be at the Ministry in the evening - claiming to be working late. (And if Arthur was spending every third night on watch while still holding a day job no wonder he fell asleep on his watch).

Nagini entered the Ministry not simply as herself but while possessed by Tom. I'm sure he could mind-control any Auror that may have been in his way. As for the kids - the DEs were waiting for them (OK, for Harry) - the 12 of them may have overcome any security that may have been there and thus also cleared the way for the kids.

Date: 2011-09-18 05:49 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
As for the night Arthur was attacked - it was important to Albus that he be found *by the right people* so perhaps even if Fudge was no longer under his thumb he still had enough support that he could find those who would cover up the exact location where Arthur was found and the presence of invisibility cloak.

Date: 2011-09-18 08:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sharaz-jek.livejournal.com
Perhaps the shifts were arranged such that the night shift was given to someone who had a legitimate reason to be at the Ministry in the evening

But in that case, what about the day shift? If it existed, how would they explain it, and if it didn't... well, I guess the list drops to current Ministry employees, which isn't much of a problem. But if no one's guarding it in the daytime, what's stopping Voldemort Polyjuicing into, say, Lucius (assuming he still counts as sufficiently human) and walking right in?

Date: 2011-09-18 08:40 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
The Order was supposedly there on day shift hidden under invisibility cloaks. That's how supposedly Lucius managed to Imperiurize Sturgis. Plenty of reasons to enter the Ministry during the day

Date: 2011-09-18 10:48 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
Changed my mind a bit. I think whoever was on watch for day shift entered the building under the invisibility cloak while accompanying someone with legitimate reason to be there.

Now I'm wondering about Apparition to/within the Ministry. But I'll need to reread the relevant parts of OOTP.

Date: 2011-09-19 10:34 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sharaz-jek.livejournal.com
Voldemort appears "in the middle of the hall" and Side-Along-Disapparates with Bella, so yes, it is possible (though the arrival of Ministry staff shortly afterwards suggests there may be some sort of alarm set off by teleporting in - though Flooing in or just walking in is apparently fine).

Date: 2011-09-19 12:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] madderbrad.livejournal.com
Arthur's near death is one of the most damning indictments of Rowling's writing, how she didn't know how to handle the prophecy.

In book 5 the prophecy is used as that tome's one-book wonder ... it's the reason for Voldemort taking the whole year to invade Harry's mind, it's the thing that props up the entire novel. But then in book 6 Rowling drops it on the floor ... she makes a farce of Harry's revelation of it to Hermione and Ron and then it's only mentioned once more, when Albus ("I speak for the author") Dumbledore tells us all that prophecies mean nothing.

And then in book 7 it's likewise forgotten until right at the end, when Rowling has Harry quote it in the final showdown to try and have it stick, to convince the readers it was relevant all along.

Anyway, why I say all this ... I just find Dumbldore's complete reversal with regard to the prophecy indefensible. Either via bad writing or horrible leadership two men died - the Order guard prior to Arthur and Sirius - and Arthur almost did, all protecting something that the following year Dumbledore was earnestly telling Harry didn't matter. "You are setting too much store by the prophecy!" screams Dumbledore ... probably because Harry was thinking "yeah, because two men died, Mr. Weasley was a near third, in protecting the damn thing".

Why didn't Dumbledore just hid the darn thing, anyway? Like he did the Stone in book 1?

Date: 2011-09-19 02:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sharaz-jek.livejournal.com
Why didn't Dumbledore just hid the darn thing, anyway? Like he did the Stone in book 1?

This at least is explicable - it's Ministry policy to keep all prophecies in the DoM and at this point he can hardly requisition it (in any case, even if Voldemort takes it, he'll have to walk into the Ministry and alert them to his return - or at least that's Bella's explanation for why he didn't just turn up in person - and Albus "prophecies don't matter" Dumbledore will have arguably come out ahead).

What isn't explained at all is why the DoM catalogue all these prophecies - are they measuring the success rate (of every prophecy ever made? How can they possibly hope to do this, and what about the ambiguous ones along the lines of "a great empire will fall if you attack Persia"?)? Couldn't they get a better understanding of the mechanics of prophecy by experimenting on Seers?

Date: 2011-09-19 02:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] for-diddled.livejournal.com
"Anyway, why I say all this ... I just find Dumbldore's complete reversal with regard to the prophecy indefensible. Either via bad writing or horrible leadership two men died - the Order guard prior to Arthur and Sirius - and Arthur almost did, all protecting something that the following year Dumbledore was earnestly telling Harry didn't matter."

To be fair to Dumbles, he might not have thought that the prophecy was important, but Voldemort clearly did. So by keeping the prophecy protected like that, Dumbledore was ensuring that his enemies' attention was focused on this comparitively useless device, rather than doing things which might help them more, such as recruiting extra followers or gaining control of the Ministry.

Date: 2011-09-19 02:48 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] for-diddled.livejournal.com
It's odd, though -- Hogwarts is protected by anti-apparition wards, you'd have thought that the centre of wizarding government would have at least the same amount of protection.

Date: 2011-09-19 04:04 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
Maybe there sometimes is a *need* for people to Apparate in/out of the Ministry, so instead of blocking it they have it available but also have an alarm system.

Doesn't Arthur say he normally Apparates to work? And not just to the vicinity of the Ministry but directly inside, he isn't very familiar with the phone-booth entrance.

So how did the Order members arrive at the Ministry for the battle without triggering alarms? Did they Apparate to outside the building, enter by phone booth and Apparate to the DOM? Or do Kingsley and Tonks have a way of circumventing the alarms?

Date: 2011-09-19 04:05 pm (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
But he didn't hide the stone away in book 1, he only pretended to. After all, he involved Quirrell in protecting the stone.

Date: 2011-09-19 10:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] madderbrad.livejournal.com
Yes, I guess I can see the difference; Dumbledore was handed the Stone by the owners, with the prophecy he'd be breaking the law if he just grabbed it. Still, that seems to be a small consideration given the lives lost - and, in Arthur's case, nearly lost - in protecting it. I suppose Fudge's anti-Dumbledore campaign would explain why Dumbledore couldn't protect it more openly too.

I do agree that the whole 'prophecy storage' thing seems like just one huge contrivance for Rowling's story. A small glass globe that only he or Riddle can touch, no-one can use a levitation charm or a pair of tongs or rubber gloves to remove it, yeah, right.

Date: 2011-09-19 10:57 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] madderbrad.livejournal.com
So by keeping the prophecy protected like that, Dumbledore was ensuring that his enemies' attention was focused on this comparitively useless device, rather than doing things which might help them more, such as recruiting extra followers or gaining control of the Ministry.

I'd accept that if Dumbledore had made good use of the time himself! But he *didn't*. He wasn't organising a publicity campaign to bring the Ministry over to his side, he wasn't actively recruiting Order members, he didn't do a darn thing while wasting people's lives keeping Riddle in a holding pattern.

Making Riddle wait one year or ten years has no practical benefit if the dark lord can proceed to carry on his original plans of taking over the world with absolutely no difference due to the pause.

Date: 2011-09-19 11:02 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] madderbrad.livejournal.com
*blinks*

I should be used to your taking-canon-to-the-extreme thinking - incorporating all the Rowling errors and trying to work out the ultimate 'unified HP theory' - by now. I mean, we all *know* that Dumbledore wouldn't deliberately place kids in danger, right? Just like we all *know* that Harry's a hero and had a 'power of love', and ... oh dear. :-)

Seriously, where is it canon that Dumbledore knew about Quirrel's possession? It's not like he ever said "I knew about Quirrell' at any stage, right?

I've come across fan fiction stories which had Dumbledore deliberately putting Harry's life on the line, and that "we had to let him test his strength" stupidity at the end of DH is *consistent* with that idea, but hardly proof.

Harry could have so easily been killed by Quirrell at the end, that nature of Lily's protection wasn't known (as far as I know) ... I'm loathe that the whole thing was a pretence.

Date: 2011-09-20 12:20 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
It isn't my theory (few are), and perhaps pretense isn't the most accurate term, but what Albus did with the stone is use it as bait to catch the potential thief.

Look whom he sent to transfer it - Hagrid, who is so proud to tell everyone he meets that he is doing some top secret very important service to the headmaster.

OK, he has one good reason to send Hagrid on this mission - he can't be impersonated with Polyjuice. But otherwise, not the best choice.

Then he involves 6 other staff members in the 'hiding', including that young fellow that just returned with a personality transplant. (Possibly also while those mysterious 'sources' reporting that Tom is no longer in Albania.) And he has the whole hiding mechanism accessible to anyone willing to try.

If he had been serious about hiding the stone, why not keep it in his private rooms? On his person? In a mokeskin pouch? Or use a variation on whatever it is the goblins use at the bank for those high-security vaults that only open when a goblin touches them? (The mokeskin pouch in DH can be seen as such a variation, but the principle was present from book 1).

In any case, we know for certain that Albus suspected Quirrell early in the year, probably before Halloween, because he warned Severus to watch out for Quirrell, and on Halloween Severus already suspects Quirrell and tries to beat him to the third floor when Quirrell lets the troll in as a diversion. Yet Albus leaves the stone there. We also know Hagrid received the dragon egg in Aberforth's pub so Albus should have figured out Quirrell was making progress then (someone gives Hagrid a dragon egg - surely not out of the goodness of his heart, shortly after that unicorns start dying in the forest) but he still doesn't move the stone. Even if the pub was not planned to belong to Albus' brother, we know Albus found Harry's invisibility cloak on the Astronomy Tower.

What it adds up to is that Albus used the stone to keep Tom or his agent (or as it turned out, both of them) busy chasing the stone. So he made sure they knew the stone was going to be at Hogwarts. He was confident enough that they wouldn't be able to breach the Mirror of Erised. Apparently he was planning to catch Quirrell by the mirror when he despaired of getting the stone. What we don't know is what he was going to do with Quirrell if he had found him alone there. Did he have any means to capture the disembodied Tom? Or was he counting on Tom remaining stuck to Quirrell when the latter was captured?

Date: 2011-09-20 12:25 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
What Albus did was review the information he had about the Horcruxes. After all, it was in June of GOF that Harry brought the information that caused Albus to realize there were more Horcruxes. In December he realizes Nagini is a Horcrux and in July he retrieves the ring. (Why didn't he find more of them? Well, if we believe him it took him all of the following year to find Tom's cave. Maybe he isn't much better of a detective than the trio. Or maybe he was following too many false leads.)

Date: 2011-09-20 12:42 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lynn-waterfall.livejournal.com
If he had a means of capturing Voldemort while disembodied, he should still have been able to use it in the events that actually took place.

Date: 2011-09-20 01:21 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] madderbrad.livejournal.com
If he had been serious about hiding the stone, why not keep it in his private rooms? ...

Yeah, but I was wondering if there was an actual admission that Dumbledore set things up as a trap. Actual canon proof rather than our supposition.

Like this:

In any case, we know for certain that Albus suspected Quirrell early in the year, probably before Halloween, because he warned Severus to watch out for Quirrell

I dimly remember that, thanks.

Okay, so it was a deliberate trap for the wraith ... allowing a school full of innocent children to be exposed to the dark lord in the process, tch. But Harry's running the gauntlet was still unplanned, right, according to canon?

Still, I'm surprised to be reminded that it was a deliberate trap for Quirrell. Something that Rowling intended all along, given that warning for Snape ... but she never reminded us of it again. She never 'used' that fact, never had any character note it in trying to prop up the headmaster's reputation as an astute leader. Instead I'm left with the overall impression that Dumbledore was crossing his fingers for most of the series.

Date: 2011-09-20 02:23 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
But Harry's running the gauntlet was still unplanned, right, according to canon?

Sorta. I don't think Albus *needed* Harry to 'save' the stone. But he seemed to have been dangling the stone in front of Harry to a degree, and encouraged recklessness in general. The dangling was in the form of having the stone removed from Gringotts very dramatically in front of Harry. The encouragement of recklessness was in the form of the gift of the invisibility cloak - and returning the cloak to Harry after he used it for the dragon adventure. Also, there was the matter of the forest detention - Minerva's name was on the letter, but I doubt Albus didn't know about it. Which means he either let or even encouraged a nightly encounter between Harry and -er - someone who was relying on unicorn blood to stay alive.

If Hagrid was reporting to Albus about his conversations with the trio then he also knew that the trio was after Flamel and had run across Fluffy, but we don't know any of this for certain, just that Hagrid tends to blab a lot so it's hard to see him keeping anything from Albus the entire year.

Some say Albus wanted to know what Harry saw in the Mirror of Erised as a personality test (how much is he influenced by the Horcrux?), but returning the cloak after it was used recklessly (rather than confiscating it as normal teachers would do) means Albus wanted more recklessness from Harry.

(And to some readers the fact that Harry ended up believing Albus wanted him to go after the stone and meet Voldemort is enough.)

Date: 2011-09-20 02:25 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
Well, maybe Albus got distracted by Harry's collapsed form.

Date: 2011-09-20 04:03 am (UTC)
From: [personal profile] oryx_leucoryx
Especially as once it is removed anyone can touch it. And how do the Unspeakables key the prophecy records to people they never met? Magical identification appears to be arbitrary. Would Quirrellmort have been able to remove the prophecy? Diary!Tom? How about Nagini-while-possessed-by-Tom?

Date: 2011-09-20 04:07 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mary-j-59.livejournal.com
Madderbrad, I would add to what Oryx said below - I think, knowing what we know now, that Dumbledore was quite content to put Harry in mortal danger. If the horcrux managed to destroy itself, so much the better. Albus could keep his hands clean. Brrr! I really do despise that character.

But, though it's pretty clear that the maze was a trap for Quirrell, it's also true that she never referred to it again. And yes, the "prophecies don't matter" thing when Bode actually died protecting it is maddening!

Date: 2011-09-20 07:49 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] madderbrad.livejournal.com
No, you're right, it's canon:

    "You see what you expect to see, Severus," said Dumbledore, without raising his eyes from a copy of Transfiguration Today. "Other teachers report that the boy is modest, likable, and reasonably talented. Personally, I find him an engaging child."

    Dumbledore turned a page, and said, without looking up, "Keep an eye on Quirrell, won't you?"

So I'm surprised again. Oryx reminded me that Dumbledore was deliberately setting a trap for Quirrell, and I remarked that I was surprised by this - Rowling obviously meant it to be so, yet has the headmaster doing very little else in 'fighting the war' against Voldemort. The man who deliberately sets a trap for the wraith in book #1 ... can't find a creature the size of a sixty foot basilisk, can't stop Sirius Black from invading the castle, allows a death eater to masquerade as a teacher for a year, sets up an ineffectual protection which takes the lives of two, almost three men, for a prophecy which next book he says is meaningless, puts on a cursed ring which kills him in book 6 and sets up a 'plan' of Hallows and Horcruxes which is so farcical only brain-dead fan zombies could possibly take it seriously.

Yet she reminds us of the Quirrell trap again in DH, as per your quote.

It just seems to be a huge ... discontinuity. Was Dumbledore actually partially efficient in book #1? His proactively setting a trap in PS seems incongruous in comparison with his bumbling for the remaining six books. That's why I totally forgot what you and Oryx have pointed out, I think.

and lookit Dumbles! He really *was doing stuff*, he didn't just sit on his arse

Not for that one-half of one book, no, he set up an overly complicated (suitable for a childrens book, I guess) trap. But as for the other eleven-twelfths of the series ... he comes over as quite ineffectual.

... OR Barty Jr. Dumbles had everything under control. So why did he let an evilly posessed teacher, an evil disguised teacher and a monstreously dangerous werewolf teacher loose amongst hundreds of children *for which he was responsible*?

Well, like I said above, he *didn't* have everything in control; Rowling couldn't let him be such, because that would then destroy her simplistic one-dimensional plots. Which is why I think Dumbledore was a farce for six and a half books and why I'm surprised at how she let him be partially effective in book 1 ... and actually reminding us of this in DH!
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