Dumbledore and the Spy in the Order

[sunnyskywalker]

An idea sparked by Oryx's "Appendix B" post on the Order of the Phoenix during VoldWar I.

Why didn’t Dumbledore figure out who the spy was, if he’s even a halfway decent Legilimens? Was Peter a fantastic Occlumens? Was Dumbledore actually a total failure at Legilimency?

Or did he think he knew exactly who it was, and so didn’t realize he needed to look again? More to the point, why do we assume there was only one spy in the mix?

A while ago on her Red Hen site, JOdel floated the possibility that Remus started spying on the werewolves for Dumbledore during the first war, and returned to the job in HBP (or had been doing it off and on all along, but started living with them full time in HBP). Fenrir Greyback and co. would hardly have let Remus hang around if he came on openly declaring that he was there to persuade them away from their evil ways. No, that would be slowly introduced, one-on-one, in secrecy. To be accepted, he would have to prove he belonged. Partly this would be some story about his hypocritically lycanthrophobic friends who hang around with each other being rich and not helping him or trusting him, but still thinking they can call him up for an adventure if they're bored, the two-faced jerks. Running with the pack at full moons, quite possibly.

But what else do spies often do to gain trust, again? Right. They pass on legitimate information occasionally.

Fenrir and his band want Voldemort to win so they can gain power. But Voldemort doesn’t help you out of the goodness of his heart — it’s quid pro quo. So one obvious way for Remus to prove his worth and loyalty to the werewolf cause is to provide information on his anti-Death Eater friends. He'll be their mole in the Order to further the bright future of werewolves everywhere!

Maybe Dumbledore totally meant for the Order members he outed via the Remus channel to get rescued just in the nick of time. Maybe he underestimated how many DEs Voldemort would send the first time or two. I’m sure whatever messed up his plans, it was someone else’s fault.

And if a few Order members he hadn’t compromised also got hit, well, Voldemort was targeting lots of people by that point, and their family associations alone might be reason enough. No reason to think one of his followers is passing along names without his say-so. Coincidences do happen.

Oops.

Comments

[nx74defiant.livejournal.com]

--the idea that he's this great general,---

I think it is very obvious as you look at his actions that Dumbledore is NO General.

Look at his words to Harry in DH in King's Cross:

"But while I busied myself with training of young wizards, Grindelwald was raising an army. They say he feared me, and perhaps he did, but less, I think, than I feared him"

and

"I think he knew it, I think he knew what frightened me. I delayed meeting him until finally, it would have been to shameful to resist any longer"

So Dumbledore avoided any active participation in the fight against Grindelwald. He stayed out it as much as he could without making himself look bad.

How much did his Order matter in the fight against Voldemort? What great success of their's do we hear of? Earlier Remus talks of how they were outnumber and how this time they are prepared. Which sounds like they didn't do very well the first time.

Than once Voldemort is defeated, knowing that he will return what does Dumbledore do? Places Snape and Sybil at Hogwarts. Raises Harry to be a sacrificial lamb.

Notice what Dumbledore doesn't do. He does nothing to undermine Voldemort's support. He isn't grooming people to be prepared for Voldemort's return. When we look at the Order, Tonks seems to be really the only new recruit from the generations between the time of the first Order and the New one.

[oryx_leucoryx]

From canon, before Godric's Hollow it seems the most significant contribution by Order members was the fact that Alastor and Frank arrested or killed some DEs (which they would have done anyway, in their capacity as Aurors). Beyond that, all we know is that some Order members went down fighting, so perhaps they may have injured or killed a few DEs between them all. And we know the Potters may have had 3 close encounters with Tom, but we don't know if any of that had any impact whatsoever.

That the first war was won in a way that strengthened Albus' position was more the result if luck than anything he did.

[oryx_leucoryx]

My summary of Albus' life and achievements:

Brilliant student.
Failure as a brother.
Some success as researcher, though failed alchemist.
Performance as teacher - unknown.
Failed headmaster.
Accidentally successful leader of private army.

[jana-ch.livejournal.com]

Don't forget head of the Wizangamot and Supreme Mugwump, possibly absentee in both positions.

I really, really wonder if JKR knows that the latter title means Supreme Fence-sitter. It's an old American political term referring to someone with his 'mug' on one side of the fence and his 'wump' on the other.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Dumbledore - a man with a very promising future in his past.