Prank Redux: Voldemort Edition

[sunnyskywalker]

I was re-reading Terri’s analysis of how strange it is that Crouch threw Sirius in prison without interrogating him and had a thought. Leave Crouch aside for today. Let’s take another look at Dumbledore.

Terri suggested that Dumbledore quickly realized (possibly via Moody, whom canon strongly suggests to be a Legilimens) that Sirius wasn’t the Dark Lord’s right-hand man. That in fact, he felt horrifically guilty about James’s death and must have betrayed the Potters inadvertently somehow. This meant he couldn’t provide juicy Death Eater intel, and was either so reckless or so gullible or both that he was a greater danger to his own side — not to mention Muggle bystanders — than many actual Death Eaters. Plus, Dumbledore hardly wanted Sirius spilling the Order of the Phoenix’s secrets to Crouch. So while it was technically unjustified, the world would be safer if Dumbledore let Crouch throw Sirius in Azkaban without interrogation or trial.

But how could Sirius have betrayed his friends inadvertently? Was he duped? Why attack Peter, if so? Dumbledore isn’t the kind of person to throw up his hands and go, “Oh well, I guess we’ll never know.” He’d have had a theory. Which was…?

Let’s back up and consider why Dumbledore found it easy to believe Sirius was a deadly loose canon in the first place. Probably any number of minor incidents, but what’s the biggie?

The Prank. The time Sirius tricked an enemy into taking action he thought would hurt the Marauders but which was, in fact, a trap. One which used Sirius’s friend as both bait and weapon.

Is that what Dumbledore thought happened on Halloween too?

Maybe something like this was Dumbledore’s working hypothesis on November 1, 1981: Sirius gets the bright idea to lure Voldemort into a trap. Why wait for him to attack when the Marauders could choose the time and ambush him? Voldemort will go to Godric’s Hollow, thinking he’s about to burst in on the unsuspecting Potters — but instead, James and Sirius will be ready. They’ll kill or capture him and be big damn heroes. Sirius advises the Potters against choosing Dumbledore as Secret-Keeper and nominates himself. Then he owls Voldemort a note revealing the secret.

But Voldemort shows up before they’ve set the ambush — before Sirius is even aware Voldemort is on his way. Maybe even before Sirius has explained his bright idea to James? And this time, no one arrives in the nick of time to save the day.

Then when poor little Peter has the nerve to confront Sirius about his betrayal, Sirius is so enraged at being called out that he blows up the whole damn street. Maybe he didn’t mean to kill those Muggles any more than he meant to kill James and Lily, but little good that does them!

Sirius wouldn’t be off the hook even if Dumbledore thought James was the brains behind the plan. A reasonable person would have known how likely it was for the plan to fail — i.e., that Voldemort would kill the Potters. Dumbledore has a high tolerance for reckless followers (see: Hagrid and his pets), but even he has limits. And Sirius, unlike Hagrid, has never shown proper appreciation for Dumbledore’s brilliant leadership. Otherwise he’d have run the plan by Dumbledore, and Dumbledore could have shut it down before anyone got hurt. (Or maybe carried it off, whichever.) Sirius agreed to the plan and kept it secret from Dumbledore, so he has to take his share of responsibility for the consequences.

Either way, Sirius’s recklessness is bound to cause more carnage if he wrangles his freedom by convincing people it wasn’t his fault. So Dumbledore testifies that Sirius was the Potters’ Secret-Keeper, and perhaps adds a sorrowful (but vague) comment about Sirius’s recklessness and propensity to violence in school. He thought the boy would grow out of it once given some responsibility, but alas…

And you know, Dumbledore’s hypothesis might not have been entirely wrong?

It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that James, Sirius, and Peter batted around the idea of luring Voldemort into a trap. (Maybe they decided to wait until Dumbledore gave James’s invisibility cloak back?) Peter duly reported the conversation to Voldemort, who decided to act quickly. Not that Voldemort doubted he could handle those little punks, but it would be a hassle, you know? He told Peter that if the Potters cast the Fidelius Charm, Peter had better make sure to be Secret-Keeper. That way, he could betray them when Voldemort chose.

If this happened, it probably made little practical difference. I doubt James and Sirius would have been a match for Voldemort, prepared or not. But it would make Sirius feel extra guilty. No wonder he was hysterical when the Ministry caught up to him.

And no wonder thirteen years later he was still claiming responsibility for James and Lily’s deaths.

Comments

[oryx_leucoryx]

I must say this is brilliant. Very plausible.

[sunnyskywalker]

People do tend to re-use strategies that worked before, right? We watched Peter do a Fake My Own Death redux. Maybe Sirius also went, hm, it went so well last time...

Thanks :D

[chantaldormand]

I like this take.

But often when it comes to Dumbledore I have to wonder if we managed to really get to bottom of an issue or if was there even more to uncover. Not because I think Albus is secretly a moustache-twirling villain, but because DH has shown us that he is capable of manipulating teenager into suicide-bombing his enemy.

I wonder if making Peter a secret keeper was something that Dumbledore hinted to Marauders in hopes that Peter would be easier to catch and spill the secret. Because if Harry really has some super special powers as prophecy suggests speeding up a confrontation between Voldemort and Harry when Albus is about to lose the war would have some serious benefits.

[sunnyskywalker]

We do have to wonder why Dumbledore didn't insist harder that no, really, I will be the Secret-Keeper (because I will be safe at Hogwarts and also I'm obviously not the spy, because I'm not your friend and also if I was you'd already be dead).

But Dumbledore might also not rate Sirius's ability to escape the Death Eaters as highly as Sirius does. Sirius thinks he hasn't gotten caught doing anything majorly wrong all through school and the war because he's so good at escaping, but in reality luck played a huge role. (Suppose there had been multiple groups of people strolling in the moonlight one month? One stag and one dog couldn't keep a werewolf from reaching all of them.) Dumbledore doesn't know about everything Sirius got away with, but he almost certainly does know that Sirius is incredibly reckless and has only survived because of luck many times.

So from Dumbledore's point of view, maybe Peter vs. Sirius doesn't really matter. Sirius will run out of luck one day (and Dumbledore can help that happen if necessary--if there's a good luck potion, surely there's a bad luck potion too?). And he underestimates Peter, as everyone does. Whichever one the Potters choose is bound to fail, in Dumbledore's opinion. Why bother guiding their choice when it ultimately makes no difference? Save the meddling for when it counts!

[chantaldormand]

if there's a good luck potion, surely there's a bad luck potion too?

You managed to rattle up my brain enough to remember that yes, there is something like bad luck potion in canon. Mackled Malaclaw bite causes bad luck, so I imagine that in theory, a wizard who really wants to make someone's life difficult could milk that creature's... venom? Let's call it venom. And soak a parchment in the venom and write letter on it. Considering that bite of Mackled Malaclaw can cause bad luck for up to a week, it is a sneaky way to make someone critically fail their rolls lol

But I suppose from Albus' perspective it doesn't matter which one of them is secret keeper. If he undervalues Sirius's combat skills and resistance to torture then he probably believes that Sirius would quickly spill Peter's address, no matter how much macho bravado he shows off during Order meetings.

Marauders' Moonlight Strolls are worthy of multiple facepalms. It fits what overconfident teenagers would do, but I'm not going to over analyse it here- that is something that I think was beaten into the ground by both FF writers and essay writers. But yes, I agree even without knowing about those werewolf environment-enhancing incidents, Marauders' successes do look like they were incredibly lucky (and had indulgent teaching staff) to end up scot-free.

About the plotting... hmmm I kind of both agree and disagree. When you manipulate people around you as much as Albus does I think it becomes a habit. So I think he does meddle everywhere he can reach but has multiple plans depending on how dices roll. Let's take Fidelious spell for example. If he really wants to speed up the confrontation between Harry and Tom, him gently trying to convince Marauders to make him the secret keeper and talking about the dangers of being a secret keeper could in theory end up in 3 different situations. 1 and 2 being Marauders being overconfident and taking up either Peter or Sirius as secret keeper ergo revealing they aren't trustworthy or reliable pawns on Albus' chessboard. And then there is possibility 3 where Albus becomes the secret keeper. At first glance, it would make creating the confrontation hard, but Albus could come up with a method of sharing the secret with Voldemort that wouldn't come back to bite him too badly. And Albus could publicly state Voldemort use highly illegal means to attain this information, letting the average WW citizen make their own interpretation of what horrible magic Voldemort used to get the location of the Potters

[sunnyskywalker]

Now I want to see Quidditch players and Wizengamot members sabotaging each other with mackled malaclaw venom. Maybe that's why the Chudley Cannons always lose?

Good point about manipulation becoming almost a reflex for him. He might not even be planning as such; he just can't help himself anymore.

If he was Secret-Keeper and somehow Lily and all the Marauders died, he could also mislead people. "You see, they considered putting it about that they had made one person Secret-Keeper while secretly using another." Which, sure, is true, but doesn't mean that's the plan they went ahead with...

Or heck, if they used Dumbledore as Secret-Keeper, he could agree that why yes, telling everyone the SK was Sirius was a marvelous idea! Tell everyone!

Did Sirius then coincidentally walk into an ambush the same night the Potters were attacked? Double-crossed by the Death Eaters, obviously. The knew he wouldn't be a reliable DE given how ready he was to betray his best friend. And if he manages to survive somehow, well, how much you want to bet that Dumbledore studied how Tom stuck his memory of killing the Riddles into Morfin's head so seamlessly? I bet Sirius would remember being Secret-Keeper and writing that note to Voldemort by the time the Aurors caught up with him.

[oryx_leucoryx]

There is one big downside for having Dumbles as Secret Keeper: He is old. He was 100 by the time the Secret Keeper issue came up. Since DH we know that death of the Secret Keeper turns all the Secret Knowers into Secret Keepers, so if Dumbles were to die of old age or some health problem any of the 4 (Sirius, Peter, James, Lily) could reveal the Secret (and possibly also Bathilda, and who knows who else). And he did not share this tidbit with the Marauders, or else Sirus' claim that Peter should have died rather than deliver the Secret to Voldie makes no sense.

(I am very slowly working on a complicated AU scenario - analysis, not fic, with Neville as TBWL, and this detail comes up.)

[sunnyskywalker]

I've been wondering whether the characters aren't playing a bit loose with the details or honestly confused when they talk about "the" Fidelius Charm. Maybe part of the confusion over how it works stems from there being several variants. If it's a very old charm, that wouldn't be surprising. In fact, I suspect there's a variant where anyone the Secret-Keeper tells instantly becomes a Secret-Keeper too. And this version is slapped on the Leaky Cauldron. (Iirc Harry didn't see the pub just looking at the right spot--not until Hagrid explicitly told him it was there.) Weak protection, but it has to be: it's a shopping district, and even a minimal level of vetting before anyone can get in is better than nothing.

If this is the case, we don't know either (a) which version Dumbledore would have used, or (b) which version the Marauders actually cast. They may not have realized there were different versions if they only had one book tha tmentioned it. So we also don't know whether they would have expected Dumbledore keeling over to affect the secret. Though if they thought it would trap them with no way to lift it, that might also make him look like a poor choice. Though not worse than Sirius or Peter, who might get killed...

ETA: I wonder if the variant that lets someone be their own Secret-Keeper, as Bill is for Shell Cottage, hadn't been invented in 1981? Maybe that whole SNAFU inspired some experimentation.

[oryx_leucoryx]

The Leaky Cauldron situation is consistent with the 12GP one: There was a Fidelius cast centuries ago, the Secret Keeper told everyone trustworthy. Secret Keeper died - suddenly hundreds of Secret Keepers, who each can tell the secret to anyone they chose. And when each of them died, all those told by that person became Secret Keepers. So Harry becomes a Secret Keeper of The Leaky Cauldron when Hagrid dies. His kids don't have to wait that long though if the version of the Hogwarts Letter that is sent to children from wizarding families contains the secret.

[sunnyskywalker]

Probably not a good idea to print dozens of letter containing the secret every year, but I suppose they can't be that careful--again, shopping district. And it might never have happened that a Muggle-raised witch or wizard became a house head responsible for escorting other Muggle-raised kids during their first trip, so they'd never have run into the problem that the teacher wouldn't be able to tell the secret.

Still, I think a variant that allows anyone told the secret to become an SK right away makes more sense in this case. If they had to wait for deaths, then--for example--a lot of people wouldn't be able to take their under-eleven children in via the Leaky Cauldron. Possibly for generations. Fine for shopping if they can Floo directly in. But what if an emergency (horde of angry Muggles on the street, rampaging magical beast that broke out of Newt's suitcase, whatever) means their best escape route is running in through the pub entrance--only they can't bring their little kids? Not everyone can Apparate. And families the Weasleys couldn't Apparate with all seven kids at once.

Looking forward to your Neville-as-Chosen-One piece.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Re: AU: I can tell you one thing: If Albus is taken out of the story, things become a lot more simple and sensible. (In canon, even death didn't remove him.) And as Jodell used to say, the villain is the story. So what does it say about Albus?

[sunnyskywalker]

Definitely. I think even if someone is unwilling to go so far as to call him a villain, there's no way around classifying him as an antagonist. Regardless of his intentions (which we only have his word for anyway) he throws up so many roadblocks and causes so many complications and disasters for basically everyone on Team Protagonists that he's more an obstacle than a mentor. By a wide margin.

[arjanenl]

I wonder though if someone as prone to manipulation as Dumbledore wouldn’t have thought Pettigrew to be an acceptable second choice: as you said everyone underestimates Pettigrew and I think Dumbledore would have estimated — wrongly, as it happens — that so does Voldemort. And, in case the Potters’ secret needed revealing, Pettigrew might not be him, but I think Dumbledore would have been confident in his abilities to bend Peter to his will: after all, it’s “only” Peter.

[chantaldormand]

Quite honestly after I had some time to think more about it both Sirius and Peter are in theory good disposable pawns for Albus. Only for different reasons.

Sirius comes from a family that has reputation. It's much easier to set up Sirius for fall as we saw in the canon- it didn't take much to get him sent straight to Azkaban. He might be harder to control but once you set him on path he is like a wrecking ball.

Peter on the other hand is like a mouse from Albus' perspective. He falls into the background, he is easily threatened, not much of magical talent... On paper he might make a decent spy- you wouldn't exactly trust him too much but occasionally he could bring an interesting nugget from the other side. But he also makes a decent fall guy- easier to control but you might work a little harder to make sure nobody would milk him for the information you don't want to spread.

So as I said- if Albus wanted Harry vs Voldemort confrontation as early as possible and Potters didn't want to make him the Secret Keeper then yeah both Peter and Sirius could work. It just depends on how Albus thinks the situation would work out better and what his later plans are.

[sunnyskywalker]

Isn't there a saying about arranging things so that all roads lead to victory? I think Dumbledore's really good at that. For a certain value of "victory," in this case.