deathtocapslock | Entries tagged with voldwar i

I had an idea which might explain a few of the more frustrating bits about the Order’s failure to catch the spy and the whole Godric's Hollow fiasco. Help me poke it to see if it holds up!

On November 1, 1981, Dumbledore might have concluded that my Prank Redux theory was the correct one. But what did he think before that?

My first spy in the Order theory was that maybe (despite them pretending 1996 was Remus's first werewolf spy rodeo) Dumbledore had in fact gotten Remus into Greyback's pack as a spy during VoldWar I, had him leak some genuine information to sell his cover, and assumed that information filtered back to Voldemort and accounted for enough of the Order's problems that there needn't be a real spy in the Order. This isn't impossible, but it is flimsy.

But suppose Dumbledore thought James was the spy. ( Read more... )

Current Mood: thoughtful

sunnyskywalker

As much as it has to recommend it, the idea that Sirius threw a curse and Peter blocked it and detonated his own exploding curse a split-second later, convincing both witnesses and Sirius himself that Sirius had killed Peter, requires awfully good timing. Which we can’t rule out: when Remus transformed in PoA, we saw Peter seize the opportunity immediately, without hesitation, to transform and escape. He does have quick reflexes.

But what about this?

Peter yells, “Lily and James! How could you!”

The very absurdity of the accusation makes Sirius pause for just the briefest “WTF? Is he mad? Could we both have been set up by someone else? Wait, no, he’s the Secret-Keeper.” He sees that Peter is scrabbling for something behind his back, raises his own wand…

…and then, before he’s actually fired off his curse, the street blows up.

What do you know, Moody was right. It is dangerous to keep your wand in your back pocket. Wormy’s lost a lot more than a buttock, though! Sirius breaks down in hysterical laughter.

When the Hit Wizards and Aurors show up, he’s still laughing. He doesn’t defend himself, because why bother? He doesn’t need to hunt down Peter for revenge; Peter’s taken care of that for him. Voldeort is dead..ish? Whatever, gone, no more need to worry about him. Dumbledore won’t let him raise Harry, who has relatives and doesn’t need him. Lily is dead. James is dead. What’s left to live for? And in a way, Wormy was right. Sirius agreed to the Secret-Keeper switch, maybe even thought of it in the first place. His overconfidence and downright stupid oversight in not realizing Wormy was the traitor delivered his friends into Voldemort’s hands. It kind of is his fault that they’re dead. Maybe he deserves Azkaban.

Thoughts?

Current Mood: thoughtful
Current Location: An exploded Muggle street

sunnyskywalker

If Lucius, Bellatrix, or Severus weren’t among the most important Death Eaters during the first war, then who was? ( Read more... )

Current Mood: tired
Current Location: an undisclosed Death Eater meeting place

oryx_leucoryx

I have been toying with the scenarios here for a long time, but got stuck in ways I could not resolve. So I decided to start posting and see if members of this list can help develop them.

In a previous post I claimed that Harry's luck in winning over Voldemort and surviving came from the work of the Prophecy Demons, hypothesized to be capricious mini-deities who run certain aspects of the Potterverse, especially those that have to do with 'ancient magic', the more mystical aspects of Potterverse magic. Others have proposed that one way these Demons interfere in events is by sending prophecies and then manipulating the fortunes of people who make choices based on knowledge of said prophecies. The rule is that a prophecy that is heard may come true in more than one way, and it ends up unrolling such that both those that seek to benefit from the prophecy coming true and those who seek to avert it fair badly, and it turns out the best line of action is always to do nothing at all based on the prophecy (but who can withstand the temptation?)

In this series I would like to try to work out how events would have turned out had one factor been different: In this case, had Severus Snape decided against reporting the overheard prophecy to Voldemort.

Terri Testing has a fic on her LiveJournal named 'Levicorpus' that starts this out: Severus realizes expecting to benefit from reporting a prophecy is a terrible move that could bite him and those he cares about, so instead he decides to Obliviate a small segment of his memory, just the overheard prophecy, before he goes back to Voldemort to report his failure to get a teaching job. In her fic the first consequence of this choice is Lily using a contraceptive charm in time to prevent Harry from being conceived, though of course, an alternative consequence might have been that Lily's pregnancy lasted a few days longer and Harry was born in early August instead - both scenarios are compatible with the Demons deciding not to punish Severus with the responsibility for Lily's death. In the discussion one idea that came up was that Severus realized he wanted Voldemort vanquished, in which case his most likely option would be to work with the DMLE somehow, with them being the legitimate anti-Voldemort force.

So here are some ideas I had to continue this scenario. There are many holes that need filling, and you are all invited to contribute.

Albus, expecting Severus to deliver the prophecy, would still hire Sybil as in canon, and would report the prophecy to the Department of Mysteries. Where Death Eater Rookwood works. In canon he probably never reported anything about the prophecy to Voldemort prior to the Godric's Hollow attack (or if he did, then for whatever reason Tom was convinced the fragment he heard from Severus was enough for his plans), but in this scenario luck might intervene. Rookwood might alert Tom to the fact that there is a new prophecy record labeled 'Dark Lord and ?' that only the Dark Lord himself can remove from the shelf. The date of the record would match the date of Severus' failed job interview. If Tom were to interrogate Severus he might find that Severus saw Albus going to meet with Sybil and was caught by Aberforth. He might at some point think the prophecy was delivered there, despite the fact that Severus retained no memory of that happening. So if Tom wants to know the contents of the prophecy his options are - go himself to the Department of Mysteries (he might try some other options first, such as possessing someone else, or he might try going there in disguise), or perhaps getting at Sybil (during summer break, when she is out of school?) or Aberforthn (Albus is clearly out of the question, I'm pretty sure). I think the Aberforth option is the only one that has the chance of delivering only part of the prophecy (without the 'and the Dark Lord shall mark him as his equal' part), and I fear for his eventual fate if that's how Tom decides to access the contents of the prophecy. If Tom hears the entire prophecy, would he still feel confident to attack the prophesied one? Is there a scenario where he gets the prophecy record (or Sybil) but still hears only part of the prophecy? Hmm. In the DOM battle, when prophecy records break we don't hear the entire prophecies do we? So maybe Voldemort gets the Prophecy record, but the Demons intervene to have him drop it, so he only hears a select part of it? (I am warming up to this scenario - frustrated Dark Lord with nobody to blame but himself.)

If Tom decides to act to avert the prophecy his most likely candidate in this AU would be Neville. We can't assume a scenario involving the Longbottoms would evolve the same as the canon scenario involving the Potters, because these are different people with different circumstances. Frank and Alice were trained Aurors, and whatever we think of Frank, there is no basis to assume he was part of a closed group that had been hiding things from Albus since school days. Frank and Alice were likely very close to Moody, who in turn was Albus' right-hand man and chief of operations within the Order. (He stands next to Albus in the photo, he runs the rota for guarding the DOM in OOTP, he runs Harry's removal from 4PD in OOTP and DH.) So the Longbottoms would be more likely to follow whatever plan Albus proposes for their safety. Also, as trained Aurors they would be more disciplined in sticking to whichever line of action is chosen. And Tom's spy within the Order is still Peter, who is not close to the Longbottoms and has no influence on them. So if Albus proposes to be their Secret Keeper they would take the offer and stick to it.

In that case the Demons would be somewhat limited, but there is still a way for the protection of the Longbottoms to be compromised: We know that the death of the Secret Keeper turns all those who know the Secret into Secret Keepers. So if the Demons want to give Tom an opening to attempt at averting the prophecy they can get Albus to die. It can be just a simple medical issue, unrelated to the war. (In which case the Elder Wand ends up masterless.) Or it could happen in a way that is more causally related to his role in letting the prophecy out - any ideas? Suddenly all the Longbottoms' close friends and family, whoever they had requested to be included in the knowledge of their secret, can reveal their location if they are captured and interrogated by Tom, or if a DE holds onto them as they Apparate to the Longbottom home - plenty of scenarios where the Longbottoms can be attacked by surprise despite following best security practices as known to them.

Back to Severus: Let's say he starts spying on Tom and the Death Eaters for the Ministry. I expect Crouch's DMLE to be more pragmatic than Albus in utilizing Severus' information, including the existence of the Dark Mark, so perhaps some arrests of DEs happen earlier than in canon, and at least while Tom exists in his original body these DEs are less likely to be able to talk their way out of Azkaban, the way Bella did at some point in canon (unless she managed to blackmail Crouch with a threat that someone was going to expose his son?).

At some point Tom would want Severus to apply for the DADA position at Hogwarts once more. Goal number one would be to obtain the sword of Gryffindor for Tom's last intended Horcrux. This likely happens while Albus is still alive. Albus would know that Tom has a collection of ancient wizarding objects (though he still has no idea what for) so if he suspects that DE Severus is after the sword he would find a way to let Severus steal a fake sword. It is possible that after getting the (fake) sword Tom would assign Severus to kill Albus (which would in turn release the Secret of the Longbottoms' location), and either this happens (making Severus the unknowing master of the Elder Wand) or Severus is somehow suspected in Albus' death regardless of his actual responsibility - either scenario would force him to leave the school. (Which scenario do the Demons prefer? I think Severus should be in their good books for his choice to suppress the prophecy, so perhaps they wouldn't push him too hard to rip his soul) I hope he can clear his name or at least avoid a prison sentence, because there is so much he can do via the Ministry (and I really don't want him in Azkaban, please no!). We see in Igor's hearing that Crouch was more than willing to cut deals with known murderers if it served him, so I see an opening for Severus here, even if he does serve some time (or perhaps Crouch avoids his imprisonment but holds it over Severus' head as a threat, sounds like him?)

With an intended Horcrux object and access to the Longbottoms Tom would plan his attack - probably shortly after Albus' death, while both Hogwarts and the Order are still in a state of confusion. I do not know what would cause him to give one or both of the Longbottoms a chance to sacrifice themselves and how that takes place rather than the 2 of them dying while dueling in a 'fair' fight, but somehow Neville ends up as a child-Horcrux, marked as Tom's equal, while Tom discorporates. Without Albus around to interfere, Neville is raised by his remaining relatives. (Does Wizarding Britain celebrate Neville Longbottom Day, or is it Frank and Alice Longbottom Day?)

OK, what do you think? Does this make sense? Any ideas for improvements?

sunnyskywalker

I was re-reading Terri’s analysis of how strange it is that Crouch threw Sirius in prison without interrogating him and had a thought. Leave Crouch aside for today. Let’s take another look at Dumbledore.

Terri suggested that Dumbledore quickly realized (possibly via Moody, whom canon strongly suggests to be a Legilimens) that Sirius wasn’t the Dark Lord’s right-hand man. That in fact, he felt horrifically guilty about James’s death and must have betrayed the Potters inadvertently somehow. This meant he couldn’t provide juicy Death Eater intel, and was either so reckless or so gullible or both that he was a greater danger to his own side — not to mention Muggle bystanders — than many actual Death Eaters. Plus, Dumbledore hardly wanted Sirius spilling the Order of the Phoenix’s secrets to Crouch. So while it was technically unjustified, the world would be safer if Dumbledore let Crouch throw Sirius in Azkaban without interrogation or trial.

But how could Sirius have betrayed his friends inadvertently? Was he duped? Why attack Peter, if so? Dumbledore isn’t the kind of person to throw up his hands and go, “Oh well, I guess we’ll never know.” He’d have had a theory. Which was…?

Let’s back up and consider why Dumbledore found it easy to believe Sirius was a deadly loose canon in the first place. Probably any number of minor incidents, but what’s the biggie?

The Prank. The time Sirius tricked an enemy into taking action he thought would hurt the Marauders but which was, in fact, a trap. One which used Sirius’s friend as both bait and weapon.

Is that what Dumbledore thought happened on Halloween too? ( Read more... )

Current Mood: curious

sunnyskywalker

A lot of fanon assumes that because Lucius, Severus, and Bellatrix are very important during the second war, they must have been so during the first. Lucius was especially trusted and valued because Voldemort gave him the diary and told him so much about it. Similarly, Bellatrix was exceptionally trusted and important because he told her all about the Horcrux he gave her to guard. Severus was important because he got assigned a special mission at Hogwarts. But does any of that that hold up? ( Not very well, in my opinion. )

Current Mood: thoughtful

sunnyskywalker

I was trying to think of a reason for a rebounding Killing Curse to make Voldemort’s body disappear (no luck so far) when I thought of an entirely different question: with no body and no witnesses (other than Harry, who probably didn’t know more than a few words), why was the wizarding public so quick to believe Voldemort had been defeated?( Read more... )

Current Mood: confused

sunnyskywalker

I must be on a "lost causes" kick this year...

I accepted for years that Harry’s year must have significantly fewer students than normal, because (a) he was conceived at or at least right before the very height of the war, and (b) we see “over a hundred” students in the Great Hall in Snape’s memory of his DADA OWL, which makes it sound like the Marauders’ year was much bigger.

I’m no longer sure that this is such a solid conclusion, however.( Read more... )

Current Mood: frustrated

sunnyskywalker

I’ve always ignored the first part of the name of Dumbledore’s special group. “Phoenix” is interesting: Dumbledore’s familiar, connected to his interest in immortality, and possibly also connected to the name of Voldemort’s special group. (We see Fawkes “eat” death, or at least a Killing Curse. Maybe there’s some historical lore tying phoenixes to “eating death,” making it seem appropriate for a club hoping to learn a few things about immortality from their master? But we needn’t insist on this.) “Order” just makes it sound fancy. Right?

Maybe there’s more to it, though.( Read more... )

Current Mood: nerdy

sunnyskywalker

Trelawney probably made her prophecy sometime between the fall of 1979 and early spring 1980. Harry and Neville were born in July 1980. So why did it take Voldemort until October 1981 to even try to kill one of them? Was he waiting for a significant date? Were the Potters and the Longbottoms just that well-hidden?

Or maybe we aren’t giving Voldemort enough credit.

We readers are introduced to the prophecy in its entirety, years after Dumbledore and Voldemort have decided who the subject is. So it seems obvious that Voldemort should have targeted babies as soon as they were born at the end of July. But was it obvious then?

Dumbledore is the one who says—in 1996, with the benefit of hindsight—that there were only ever two possible prophecy-boys, and that Voldemort “chose” Harry as the greater threat rather than just, say, going after whichever baby he got access to first.( Does anyone here believe Dumbledore's every word without question? I didn't think so. )

sunnyskywalker

Over the years, we've speculated that Dumbledore tacitly approved of and possibly encouraged the Marauders' bullying for various reasons--indifference (whether clueless or callous), a liking for charming bad boys, a liking for chaos generally, as part of a plan to earn their loyalty and prepare them as fighters for the Order of the Phoenix, a secret desire to set up the next Dark Lord for him to nobly oppose should the current one fail, and probably a few other possibilities I've forgotten. Liking chaos or bad boys or good fighters would all point to James and Sirius as the Marauders who caught Dumbledore's attention, with Remus as a great potential-spy bonus and Peter along for the ride.

But now I think this is off the mark. Harry is the one focused on James and Sirius. What was Dumbledore thinking in the seventies?( Read more... )

Current Mood: thoughtful

sunnyskywalker

An idea sparked by Oryx's "Appendix B" post on the Order of the Phoenix during VoldWar I.

Why didn’t Dumbledore figure out who the spy was, if he’s even a halfway decent Legilimens? Was Peter a fantastic Occlumens? Was Dumbledore actually a total failure at Legilimency?

Or did he think he knew exactly who it was, and so didn’t realize he needed to look again? More to the point, why do we assume there was only one spy in the mix? ( Read more... )

Current Mood: mischievous
Current Location: Forbidden Forest

oryx_leucoryx

What do we know about the Order of the Phoenix in the first war? Our main source for the membership is the photograph that Alastor Moody showed Harry. The front row has: Albus Dumbledore, Alastor Moody, Dedealus Diggle, Marlene McKinnon, Frank and Alice Longbottom, Emmeline Vance, Remus Lupin and Benjy Fenwick. Behind them are Edgar Bones, Sturgis Podmore, Caradoc Dearborn, Rubeus Hagrid, Elphias Doge and Gideon Prewett (and presumably also Fabian Prewett?). In the back are Aberforth Dumbledore, Dorcas Meadows, Sirius Black, James Potter, Peter Pettigrew and Lily Potter.

( Read more... )

oryx_leucoryx

How many unnamed DEs were there?

Harry estimates the number of DEs in the graveyard was over 30. ( Read more... )

oryx_leucoryx

My series covered the events of the first war until the attack on the Longbottoms. I wanted to add some appendices about the less principal characters, to see what we know about them, in hope to be useful to those fanfic writers who care about canon-compliance. I was going to write one appendix about the Death Eaters and one about the Order, but so far the first entry has been growing beyond proportions without becoming complete, so I decided to break it up. This part will focus on canon information about the DEs that were named in canon, the next part will seek to extrapolate about those that were not mentioned by name (Chuck, Lance and the rest).

( Read more... )

terri-testing.livejournal.com

Something I think canon is silent on--I'd like opinions, informed or otherwise.

When we saw Albus send a white-faced Severus to Tom's side at the end of GoF with that "if you are prepared" comment, it was as a double-triple-quadruple-(to the nth) agent. Snape's life then balanced on his persuading a paranoid and enraged Dark Lord that he was really still loyal (or loyal again) to the Death Eater cause, but that Albus falsely believed Snape to have turned his loyalty irrevocably to him, and to now be only pretending to be a Death Eater in order to spy for Albus.

A very perilous position, particularly when both masters are expert Legilimens and know the other to be the same. The more one master trusts Snape, the less the other ought to, eh?

What does he see in your mind that I do not? What do you show him, and hide from me?

So--was this fiendishly difficult and demanding position the same as the one Severus was placed in when he originally obtained a place at Dumbledore's right hand as a supposedly repentant DE?

Or was the original assignment a little less complicated: that Severus was to approach Dumbledore as a remorseful Death Eater begging him for sanctuary at Hogwarts, the only stronghold still firm against Voldemort? In exchange for a pre-agreed--with the Dark Lord--flood of information on the Death Eaters?

And then stay there as a sleeper until Tom activated him?

If Tom had ordered Severus to do nothing but cement Dumbledore's trust until he explicitly told him otherwise, if Severus didn't regularly have to face Tom's interrogations and report satisfactorily on Dumbledore's doings, his position (both then and in GoF) was, while precarious, not as immediately lethal as we had thought.

Opinions?

terri-testing.livejournal.com

Oryx suggested that the Longbottoms had not been tortured into insanity by the Death Eaters, but tortured, Obliviated, and released, in case Frank might subsequently learn more. And that Frank and Alice’s minds had been ripped apart by the Ministry (or just by Crouch), trying to recover the Obliviated memories. Because the Ministry guessed that the Longbottoms had been interfered with by some free Death Eaters, and were willing to sacrifice their minds in order to recover their memories.

*

( I’d )

oryx_leucoryx

The only new name of a DE Igor was able to provide was that of Augustus Rookwood, the spy within the Ministry. Yet this information was sufficient for Crouch to release Igor, an admitted participant of the raid in which the McKinnons died. ( Read more... )

oryx_leucoryx

After Tom's downfall, the main action against his supporters was by the Ministry. (BTW the rumors must have started flying before morning. Who started them? Bathilda Bagshot? The Ministry clean-up team? Hagrid? Albus himself?) ( Read more... )