Date: 2012-08-07 01:48 pm (UTC)
What about a combination: Snape was forced, or tricked, into some sort of vow, by the threat, overt or covert, of expulsion? He knew he'd keep a verbal promise, but Dumbledore, at the time, would have known about his friends and their ties, and might have insisted on some sort of magical oath.

For the timing vis the Marauders' marauding, it's possible that Snape didn't know about their releasing the werewolf, even if they did it before the 'Prank.' He knew they snuck out. That doesn't mean he knew they were Anamagi, or, if he suspected, that he knew what their forms were. And, it's been stated that the Forbidden Forest had werewolves in it, so even confirmation of Lupin's 'furry problem' wouldn't be as forthright, even if he saw the four of them dancing, transformed, on Hogwarts' lawn.

One thing that really bothers me about defenses of the 'Prank' - everyone assumes that Snape knew he'd end up in an enclosed space at the end of the tunnel. There's no reason to think that. For all he knew, the tunnel ended in the Forbidden Forest, or in a field outside of Hogsmeade, or anyplace but in a room with an untethered werewolf. Even if he suspected a werewolf, he had no reason to consider that he might end up right inside the 'cage' with the beast.
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