deathtocapslock | Concerning the expected effects of reporting prophecies

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Concerning the expected effects of reporting prophecies

I was re-reading some old DTCL posts, and started wondering about prophecies. Specifically, about what a young, Dark Arts-curious wizard might know--or believe--about how they work.

Divination class, as we see, teachings more indirect predictive methods, such as reading tea leaves and cystal-gazing. Actively channeling... something... to deliver a prophecy isn't taught as far as we know, and likely can't be. Moreover, that particular method seems to be rather obscure. An official Mystery, in fact.

But there are literary depictions of prophecies. And both Shakespeare and Sophocles lived before the Statute of Secrecy, and their works might be find in wizarding libraries regardless of their authors' actual magical abilities or lack thereof. Their depictions of how prophecies usually work may have been based on fact. At least in part.

Would a geeky young wizard combing through every reference he could find to the Dark Arts read Macbeth and Oedipus the King, one wonders? As part of being thorough? And wonder if, perhaps, trying to prevent a prophecy from coming true really will not only be futile, but might even be the very means by which the prophecy will come to pass? Or at least, the attempt could make the prophecy come to pass sooner than it otherwise would have?

Hypothetically, if such a young wizard overheard part of a prophecy while trying to apply for a job, on his terrifying new master's orders--perhaps with some vague hope of using the opportunity to switch sides, but scared off by the opposition's disdain--would he at least have reason to hope that delivering said prophecy to the terrifying master would actually be a way to strike a blow? A desperate hope, for desperate circumstances? (He'd surely noticed by then how, erm, suboptimal the working conditions under Voldemort were.)

When Severus told Voldemort that a prophesied enemy could defeat him, what exactly did he think might happen should Voldemort respond by trying to kill that enemy?

Very possibly, something more than just that enemy getting AK'd.

Very possibly, the same thing Dumbledore thought might happen: Voldemort would be arrogant enough to think he could outwit a prophecy, and would destroy himself in trying to prevent it.

Then Severus and all his friends could put that nightmare behind them, without having to risk their lives and their families (like, say, the expected Baby Malfoy). Whew! Brave, but saving their necks if possible.

How unfortunate that this turned out to mean Sev's childhood best friend would die in the process! But then, he should have known better. Trying to manipulate a prophecy is liable to rebound on one, after all. Yet another reason for him to wish he had died, afterward.

If he'd just kept his mouth shut, might Harry have been born in the wee hours of the morning of August 1?

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If Lily did indeed go into labor on the 31st and that can't be prevented, I'm now thinking about transporting her over to the other side of the international date line...

We also don't know the time of day Harry was born. If it was at, say, 11:30 pm on the night of the 31, going into labor half an hour later than she actually did would have changed Harry's birthday. Surely the prophecy demons or the Potterverse luck demons could load the dice for that to happen, if they're so good at changing luck?

Or giving birth just one timezone over--suppose she fled the country for Harry's birth, and while it was 11:30 or 10:30 in England, it was 12:30 where she was?

Labors vary much in length. Mine was 14 hours, and there are much longer. Speed of progress can be manipulated to a degree.

If you haven't yet, you absolutely MUST read Valley of the Shadow by potionpen, over on AO3. The last chapters are precisely about this!

Ooh, I will have to check that out! Thanks!

Note that it will be very confusing if you don't begin with the earlier related stories!

Absolutely brilliant fic, but each chapter must usually be read multiple times before I catch most of it - especially since Sev's preferred manner of thinking (and speaking) often includes tangents,

But I do think you could possible read the chapter on Harry's birth (and the one before where Lily is trying very hard to NOT go into labor) and get the gist of what melodysister means

Oh, my word, Sunny.

That makes so much sense.

If you act on a prophecy, whether to avert it or to fulfill it (Macbeth tried both), you empower it.

And what you pay, the cost of doing so, is what you are trying to preserve.

If SEVERUS, the young smartass, had tried to bring about the prophecy BY bringing it to his master--plotting (or at least hoping) that it would goad Him into ill-considered action--in the hopes of saving his own life, and those of his friends, at the probable expense of some random stranger's... then OF COURSE the random stranger he'd just thrown to the Prophecy Demons would turn out to be exactly the one person he'd have sacrificed his own life, and all his other friends', to preserve.

He thought he was being so clever, too. It's not like HE was doing anything directly; it could only rebound on the Dark Lord, and only if he tried to do anything to turn it. And if the Dark Lord turned out to be smart enough to ignore the prophecy, well, no harm done. Including none to Severus, because he was just showing himself keen in bringing it to his master. In fact it was the perfect sweetener to go along with the bitter news that Albus had refused Severus the DADA position--look what useful information I bring you instead. He couldn't lose.

Oh, poor Severus. No wonder his guilt was so overwhelming. And no wonder he was willing, in return, to throw his friends' lives along with his own under the trainwreck that was Albus....

You are brilliant.

As to your last comment--it might even be worse. Some people have speculated that the prophecy was made on Halloween 1979. At the time of Harry's conception. James might have shot a blank that night, or Lily remembered her contraception charms....

It would be easy for a too-clever teen to read Macbeth and conclude that Macbeth's mistake wasn't trying to manipulate a prophecy, but regicide. (Which surely called for some cosmic backlash at the time.)

Or at least, that you could get away with trying to manipulate a prophecy if the actions were the ones you would take anyway--he'd have reported the prophecy out of fear of Voldemort, because Voldemort might catch a glimpse of it in his head (Sev not being as practiced at Occlumancy at this point). If he was going to report it anyway, why not report it while hoping it was just enough rope for Voldemort to hang himself?

Except the Prophecy Demons do seem to see a difference. Oops. It really is all his fault.

Ooh, good point. Lily and James might have gotten into an argument that led to Lily storming out instead of conceiving Harry! Who knows?

Thinking further... Some provisional Rules for Prophecies. Subject to revision!

1. The prophecy will come true even if you take no action.

Banquo did nothing to ensure that his descendants became kings (nor did he try to prevent it), and the prophecy came true.

Harry took no action specifically with the intent of affecting Trelawney’s second prophecy about the servant rejoining his master. Sure, he tried to stop Sirius and then Peter from getting away, and stopped Sirius and Remus from killing Peter, but not in order to prevent the prophecy from coming true. He wasn’t thinking of the prophecy at all at that moment.

2. Trying to prevent a prophecy from coming true will rebound on you with a vengeance.

Leaving your newborn son on a mountainside to prevent him from killing his father and marrying his mother will just mean all these things happen with the three of you ignorant—he’ll kill you in a road rage incident instead of in a coup or a much-regretted accident, say.

If you try to murder a baby before he has the power to defeat you, that very process will blow up your body. (Maybe if Voldemort had waited, Harry still would have had some Power Voldemort Knew Not, but it would have been something different than absurd good luck, Parseltongue, and Scar-O-Vision.)

3. Trying to speed a prophecy along is likely to get you caught in the gears.

If three witches tell you you’re going to be king, killing the current king to get there faster is not a good plan. The Birnam Wood and “of no woman born” prophecies weren’t made until after the regicide. Who’s to say they would have been made at all if Macbeth had just been patient? Maybe he could have become king naturally and lived happily ever after.

If Dumbledore—and/or anyone else—allowed the prophecy to go to Voldemort in hopes that it would spur Voldemort to do something rash, well, they had some awful bad luck and eventually got killed, didn’t they? (It isn’t an instant smackdown; Macbeth got to be king a while before the prophecies bit him.) Severus perhaps more so than Dumbledore, but then, Dumbledore might have been riding Harry’s good-luck field for a while.

4. If you act in the belief that an ambiguously-worded prophecy favors your goals, it will turn out that the correct interpretation is the one least favorable to you.

To take some other famous ancient Greek examples, if you go to war because you think the Oracle said, “You will return, not dying in the war,” it will have actually said, “You will return not, dying in the war.” If you think the “great army” that will be destroyed if you go to war will be the enemy’s, it will actually be yours.

Similarly, acting on the belief that you’re invincible because you think it’s impossible for a forest to move or for a man not to be “born” of woman will only lead to you discovering how very wrong you are and how very legalistic the Prophecy Demons can be.

Maybe it’s a very good thing that Dumbledore never so much as hinted to Harry about his suspicions concerning how the prophecy might play out. If Harry had gone into that encounter thinking that death might only be a technicality, things might have gone very badly.

5. It’s possible to act in a way you know fulfills a prophecy and not get caught in the rebound… but ONLY if your motive doesn’t primarily concern the prophecy.

As mentioned earlier, Harry making it easier for Peter to rejoin Voldemort by persuading Sirius and Remus not to kill him wasn’t an attempt at fulfilling the prophecy, so nothing bad happened. (Probably.) More crucially, when he makes his suicide march and allows Voldemort to kill him, he knows that this fulfills the prophecy—but his motive is to destroy the Horcrux fragment he carries (so that someone else can kill Nagini and Voldemort), and he thinks this is the only way that can happen. He’s following the prophecy, but not consciously trying to manipulate it.

Though it might have been a close shave in which only his extraordinary luck kept the Prophecy Demons from interpreting his actions in the harshest possible manner.

Edited 2015-10-22 00:37 (UTC)

Perhaps I'm misremembering, but didn't Harry think he was really going to die? I'm also hazy about him knowing about being a horcrux.

Harry realized he was a Horcrux from the memory in which Dumbles explained this to Severus. And yes, he believed he was really going to die.

Thx. How could I have forgotten Snape's anger!!

Yep, he thought it would be permanent, and would hopefully allow for Voldie to be permanently killed too (by someone else). So he knew offering himself up would mean he would die at the hand of Voldie, which would make the prophecy come true... but you can at least argue that he wasn't trying to manipulate the prophecy. More, "So this is what I have to do to help defeat Voldemort. Wow, sucks that the prophecy will be fulfilled this way instead of by me not dying. Oh well, nothing for it now."

Sunny, I've been all meta-ish these many months, but you made me commit fanfic. Thanks for the inspiration.

Also, if Severus did deliberately turn the prophecy over to Tom, then he thinks Lily's death (which his greatest efforts couldn't avert) is his just punishment for hubris.

And so would be Harry's. So what's the point of struggling, like he had with Lily? Now we have a reason for him to go along with DD's plan to sacrifice Harry however much he hates it, without looking for other options. It has to happen that way BECAUSE Snape hates it, because the universe isn't done punishing him.

In which case DD's "have you come to care for the boy?" is even crueler than we thought--he's suggesting that it's Snape's fault the boy must die too....

Like the "rules"! They do seem to cover it.

So glad to be of service!

Oh, ouch, you're right, that is an extra twist of the knife.

And yes, it does sound like something that would increase his passivity. Look what happened when he did struggle, after all.

Regarding Sybil's second prophecy: It does not specify Peter. If Peter had been captured, even killed that night, it could have still come true through some other servant of Lord Voldemort that was 'chained' (or however the prophecy worded it). The most obvious option was Barty, who had been actually imprisoned, first in Azkaban, then in his father's home (rather than simply hiding, as Peter had been), for almost as long as Peter was. We know Barty was becoming stronger. So perhaps the prophecy demons would have arranged for him to have escaped that night and gone to Albania. He might even have run into Bertha Jorkins. And Tom would have had a truly willing servant to donate his flesh for his resurrection, which may have resulted in a more dangerous version of himself. So I think the prophecy demons intervened to reward Harry for not trying to avert the prophecy when they enabled Peter's escape that night.

Oh yes, Barty Jr. breaking free could have been a valid alternative if Peter had gotten, erm, "shot while trying to escape." And that could have gone either okay depending on a variety of other factors, or very, very badly.

Having the less-enthusiastic servant who felt he owed Harry, at least a little, was probably one of the better outcomes there.

5. It’s possible to act in a way you know fulfills a prophecy and not get caught in the rebound… but ONLY if your motive doesn’t primarily concern the prophecy

Which harks back to Harry's utter passivity and the idea that trying to actually accomplish your goals (as opposed to just sitting around and waiting for the answers to be handed to you on a silver platter) is a sign of moral deficiency.

Oh, yes. It fits all too well. I mean, I am all for a "don't be a meddling control freak who gets over-involved" message, but this isn't that. It's, as you say, utter passivity. ugh.

The Prophecy Demons encouraging such an attitude might explain a few things about the Potterverse, granted.

I do think it over complicates things to have Snape giving Voldy the prophecy because he thinks it will get rid of Voldy. I can see why you suggest it. However, I think it's enough that he reports it to Voldy and so IS involved whether he wants to be or not.

Another possibility would be that he thinks providing Voldy with the info will earn him enough favor that he might be able to ask for protection for Lily - even without the prophecy, she was a target.

I think that even just that simple a reason would cause the prophecy to target her family and so ruin what Sev wanted.

Of course, I also think that it could be as simple as Voldy sent him there specifically to spy on Trelawney's interview. She was a descendent of a known seer. Just because Albus didn't expet anything from her, doesn't mean Voldy wouldn't. But mostly, I think he might have sent Sev simply because Albus was interviewing a 'seer' for a class that Albus had already dropped. It was an oddity - especially since he was interviewing her at a pub in a private room.

Remember also that the HogsHead was where Voldy's 'friends' were waiting to hear from him after his interview for the DADA and is also a hangout for some shady character types. It's easy enough to suppose that Voldy would have heard she was 'in town' and why.

Was Sybill staying at the HogsHead? or was the room rented especially just for the interview. Albus took her directly to Hogwarts, so it is possible that she was staying at the HogsHead.

So the prophecy could already be affecting things and had Voldy send Sev to listen in. Doesn't mean Sev knew Voldy suspected Sybill might 'see' something. All he needed to know was that he was supposed to spy on Albus - possibly even just to find out why he was meeting a woman in a rented pub room. Perhaps he thought Voldy was looking for blackmail material?

I'm not saying I think your theory wrong - however - I'm not sure I think Sev the type to believe in prophecies until this one went off. And while I agree that he MIGHT have read Shakespeare, I'd feel better about this idea if we had some instance in canon that suggested he might have so done.

To have Tom send Severus to spy on Albus specifically because he knew Albus would be interviewing Sybil requires that Tom know sufficiently in advance that the interview would take place. What is the likelihood of that?

Sybil says she had not eaten that day. It seems as though she was having a hard time making a living. Where was she staying before arriving at Hogsmeade? Did she come to Hogsmeade after having made the appointment with Albus, or was she staying there all along? In either scenario, how did Tom find out about her plans to interview with Albus?

Also, while Sybil was a descendant of a Seer, that was several generations removed. She had no record of successful prophecies up to that point. Why would Tom expect anything?

It is possible, presuming she was staying at the HogsHead. IF she was hard up for cash, then staying at the HogHead is more likely than Rosemerta's place. Of course, it all depends on if she was staying there or just apparated in for the interview. But why have the interview there instead of at Hogwarts?

As I said it might not be, however it is also just as unlikely that Sev took it upon himself to go to the HogsHead to spy on Albus. How would Sev have any idea that there would be an interview either?

Either it is the prophecy demons bringing Sev to the right place to overhear, or just plain bad luck, or lastly, something was overheard by someone at the HogsHead about the upcoming interview. It isn't as if canon doesn't suggest the possibility that Aberforth cultivated the DE clientele, specifically for his own info gathering for Albus.

Perhaps Sybill spoke of the interview in the bar?

I do think it strange that she could be moved to Hogwarts so easily and immediately, if she actually had a home elsewhere.

Truthfully, it's probably more that JKR just had to have the interview take place somewhere it could be overheard.

As for why Voldy would expect anything? Simply for the fact that Albus was interviewing her after school had begun and after dropping the subject. It's an oddity. IF word had reached him of the interview then he would want to know why Albus was bothering. Perhaps Voldy suspects that Albus believes she's a seer. IF not then what would Voldy think would be Albus' reason for the interview?

Or, as I mentioned, perhaps he just wanted to know why Albus would meet a woman in a rented room at the HogsHead. And perhaps wonder what he might say to her.

I would say that maybe they traditionally hold interviews off-campus (some kind of magical security/don't give strangers access without good reason), but that doesn't hold up from what else we see. Like Dumbledore inviting Voldemort into his office for his job interview. Really, that's just asking for trouble!

It could be that Voldemort really was thinking of sending Severus to apply for a job. Maybe not that particular night, but soon. So Sev was hanging out at the bar with his DE friends, went to the loo, and saw Albus heading up the stairs. "Hmm, that's odd. What's he up to? Maybe I can put in that job application after all--he won't accept me, of course, but I'll be able to tell the Dark Lord I tried. And if I listen a bit first, see what he's up to, maybe I'll bring back something useful..."

I don't think using the prophecy as a weapon necessarily had to be a well-formed plan, just a general hope. "Well, if I probably have to tell him anyway (I mean, no risk trying to hide something that might be nonsense anyway)... what if he reacts classically and it bites him? That would be great! Yes, that confirms my inclination to pass on this fortuitous tidbit." That's probably enough to incur the wrath of the Prophecy Demons.

He needn't have read Shakespeare or Sophocles specifically, either, though being pre-Secrecy authors, it's possible. But I figure wizards have some sort of lore on prophecies, and how you really shouldn't try to mess with them. So he might plausible have read something while researching up on the Dark Arts. And probably filed it under "rare, probably useless, no need to study closely" at the time.

That same fic that melodysister suggested also had a wonderful chapter where Sev wrote a gazillion different ways this partial prophecy might go/mean - heavy on the suggestion that acting upon a prophecy will bite you in the end.

Name of fic: 'Valley of the Shadow' by potionpen (on Ao3) or nightfallrising (on fanfiction). Again, I suggest reading the earlier stories as there are some shifts from what we 'expect' from canon - altho' I don't think many of them are actually disallowed by canon.

A few of the cardboard characters of Sev's years in Slytherin are considerably more fleshed out. Evan Rosier is actually a main character in this story and Wilkes is female (which really is NOT specified by JKR one way or the other). Warning: M/M relationship unless you read the version on FanFiction with (gen) included in the title - in case that is troublesome.

Also warning - Valley covers the early parts of the war and has a few really 'icky' scenes.

Currently LOVE Flitwick in this!

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Concerning the expected effects of reporting prophecies

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