Oh yeah, I can definitely see this as an escalation after the dragon/unicorn-killer incident. They did the same thing with the brooms: McGonagall (and Dumbledore) let Harry break the broom rule and got him the best broom on the market, so the next year, the Malfoys got the whole team the best brooms on the market while pointedly following the letter of the rules. So, going, "I see your secret monsters and raise you one terrifyingly public monster" sounds like their style. And I agree it is good timing for Abraxas to suddenly not be around to go, "No, son, you are going to sit down and keep quiet. Remember what happened last time you thought you had a great plan to gain power?"
What Lucius actually planned and what he actually said that Dobby overheard is so frustrating to try to work out in a way that makes sense. Whatever it was, he must have thought his plan could work. He's arrogant, but I can't see even Lucius thinking he could get away with somehow "figuring out" that the monster was a basilisk and defeating it while also ensuring that Draco never ran across it, all from a distance.
That's one reason I think it works if Lucius didn't know about the basilisk. If he thinks a student will be cursed to fake mysterious attacks on known-Muggleborns, well, he can probably solve that without looking too suspicious in the process. Having a plan that he thought was nicely under control blow up in his face because he'd underestimated the actual threat the diary posed sounds like the kind of screw-up you would expect from a lot of people, and especially a Malfoy. (Sometimes I think their family motto must be, "Our cunning plans always nearly succeed!") And if the overheard conversation was something like, "You know, I've started wondering if this Tom Riddle was the Dark Lord, not one of his patsies," Lucius might have jumped to the wrong conclusion: "Well, if he was a Muggle-born or half-blood all along, maybe he really wasn't as powerful as he seemed. And he did get defeated by a baby...yeah, this diary is probably no big deal. I can handle it."
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2021-08-23 03:38 pm (UTC)What Lucius actually planned and what he actually said that Dobby overheard is so frustrating to try to work out in a way that makes sense. Whatever it was, he must have thought his plan could work. He's arrogant, but I can't see even Lucius thinking he could get away with somehow "figuring out" that the monster was a basilisk and defeating it while also ensuring that Draco never ran across it, all from a distance.
That's one reason I think it works if Lucius didn't know about the basilisk. If he thinks a student will be cursed to fake mysterious attacks on known-Muggleborns, well, he can probably solve that without looking too suspicious in the process. Having a plan that he thought was nicely under control blow up in his face because he'd underestimated the actual threat the diary posed sounds like the kind of screw-up you would expect from a lot of people, and especially a Malfoy. (Sometimes I think their family motto must be, "Our cunning plans always nearly succeed!") And if the overheard conversation was something like, "You know, I've started wondering if this Tom Riddle was the Dark Lord, not one of his patsies," Lucius might have jumped to the wrong conclusion: "Well, if he was a Muggle-born or half-blood all along, maybe he really wasn't as powerful as he seemed. And he did get defeated by a baby...yeah, this diary is probably no big deal. I can handle it."