Harry's Luck

[oryx_leucoryx]

In Terri's essay Dumble's (mis) conceptions about Godric's Hollow: James's and Lily's roles she showed how finally in June 1995 Albus realized one of his mistakes: That what protected Harry at Godric's Hollow wasn't a magical shield against the Killing Curse but an unusual level of luck that was conferred upon Harry by his parents' sacrificial deaths, and that this protection continues even after Tom used Harry's blood in the formation of his new body, whereas the protection from Tom's direct touch and direct spell-casting ended. In this essay I would like to explore some more aspects where luck was involved (and was likely necessary) in the events surrounding Harry, and what the impact of those lucky events were in the end. This is unlikely to be a comprehensive list, and anyone is welcome to add to it.

For instance, it was very fortunate that the events of Harry's first year at Hogwarts lead up to a physical encounter between Harry and Quirrellmort. As a result Tom concluded the blood he should use for his re-embodiment potion should come from Harry and no other of his many enemies. In the end this was key to Harry's ability to survive the AK that destroyed Tom's soul-piece within him. And how much luck was involved in setting this encounter up? At the very least, it was fortunate that Quirrell chose the previous year to seek practical experience towards teaching DADA. Also, it was fortunate that somehow the day Harry and his friends decided to go down the trapdoor was the very same day Quirrell managed to reach the mirror, despite having the knowledge to get past Fluffy since Easter. There may have also been some luck involved in having Harry arrive at the conclusion that the Philosophers' Stone was being kept beyond the trapdoor, and that someone (well, Severus Snape, in Harry's opinion) was trying to steal it for Voldemort, but the exact events were less crucial individually - there may have been other ways to arrive at the same or a similar enough conclusion that would have driven Harry to the same action.

The events of Harry's second year were driven by Lucius Malfoy's planting of Tom's diary on Ginny. Thanks to that Harry was able to destroy one of Tom's Horcruxes (without even knowing what a Horcrux was) while imbuing the sword of Gryffindor with basilisk venom, thus converting it into a Horcrux-destroying tool (which indeed went on to destroy 2 additional Horcruxes with this venom), while alerting Albus to the fact that Tom knew how to make Horcruxes well before the Godric's Hollow attack. If Lucius had launched the diary before Harry's arrival at Hogwarts it is entirely possible that in the absence of a Parselmouth at the school the attacks would have been unstoppable. And if Lucius had used some other way, short of Fiendfyre, to get rid of the diary it is possible Harry wouldn't have been able to track it down. If Lucius had destroyed the diary with Fiendfyre Harry might not have learned of the destruction and delayed facing Tom. (I am less certain of the latter - Albus, and later Harry, might have been able to learn this eventually via Severus.)

During the following summer the Weasleys won the wizarding lottery (pure luck!) leading to their photo being published in the newspaper. And it so happened that just then Cornelius Fudge decided to visit Azkaban, taking the newspaper with him. And Sirius borrowed that paper, saw Peter, and started working on his escape. This series of highly unlikely incidents started the chain of events that led to Harry seeing Slytherin's locket at 12GP, as well as Harry gaining the ability to command Kreacher and learn the locket's story.

It was fortunate that Bertha Jorkins decided to visit family in Albania just as Peter Pettigrew was making his way there in search of Voldemort. This led to Tom's re-embodiment eventually allowing Tom to destroy the Horcrux in Harry (with Harry surviving thanks to the blood connection). And it was extremely fortunate that Harry's Expeliarmus came at the exact timing to clash with Tom's AK.

I am less certain about the role of luck in Harry's fifth year, except perhaps in timing events of the confrontation at the Ministry. Somehow Severus managed to time his warning to the Order such that help arrived for the kids at the Ministry, but it arrived late enough that Severus could get away with it without seriously endangering his cover. And the situation evolved enough that it ended with a direct confrontation between Albus and Tom, one that seems to have been the final push that sent Albus to go and look for Tom's Horcruxes.

Albus' Horcrux search got him hit with a lethal curse, however fortunately Severus was able to limit the effect in a way that allowed him to make a planned transfer of the search to Harry, with some critical assistance from Severus. That Albus was going to die before Harry started his search meant Cosmic!Albus was going to be available to explain to Harry that he had the option of going back and surviving.

Harry had the luck of getting the Half-Blood Prince's annotated textbook in his sixth year. This allowed him to win the Felix Felicis potion, which in turn enabled him to convince Horace to give him the complete memory of the conversation with Tom about Horcruxes and thus the number of Horcruxes Tom intended to make. From the book Harry also learned the Sectumsempra curse. His use of this curse almost sabotaged the entire project (either from Harry's expulsion or Severus' death by Unbreakable Vow, had Draco died), but luck got Severus on the scene in time to save the day. Harry's hiding the book in the Room of Hidden Things allowed him to see Rowena Ravenclaw's diadem, such that when he learned what it was he realized it might be another Horcrux.

One of the weirdest strokes of luck in the entire saga is the case of Harry's wand operating on its own (and destroying the wand Tom had been using) in the battle of the 7 Potters. This phenomenon isn't explained by anyone, not even Cosmic!Albus. Its main effects were that in response Tom went out on his quest for the Elder Wand - and at the same time accidentally started communicating his actions to Harry via their mind-link. The wand-quest meant Tom was not around to give Dark Marks to new recruits nor to direct the DEs strategically - they were just following the original script - take over the Ministry, track down Muggleborns and take their wands, take over the school - but few were trying very hard or working on broader goals. After the first few weeks Bella was chilling at Malfoy Manor, the rest were mostly dealing contraband in Aberforth's pub. And of course in the end the Elder Wand was part of Tom's failure.

Harry's quest for the Horcruxes started with following the trail of clues (which he had been quite lucky to obtain) to the locket. But once he got the locket, all his progress was purely based on bouts of luck with very little between them:
- Fortunately Hermione decided to carry Phineas Black's portrait in her bag - this line of communication was essential for Severus' ability to deliver the sword to Harry.
- Fortunately Yaxley held onto Hermione when they Apparated out of the Ministry - this forced the trio out of 12GP and led them eventually to where they could find out about the existence of the fake sword in the Lestrange vault, and learn from Phineas about the sword's utility in destroying Horcruxes.
- Fortunately Hermione mentioned their location while her bag was open, so Phineas could relay it to Severus.
- Fortunately Ron returned in time to save Harry from drowning and destroy the locket.
- Fortunately they were captured, and fortunately their captors chose to bring them to Malfoy Manor, where they realized a Horcrux must have been placed in the Lestrange vault, and where Harry had the opportunity to grab Draco's wand, thus becoming Master of the Elder Wand. Also, that was where they met with Ollivander and Griphook.
- Just in time Harry finally remembered to use Sirius' mirror to get help for their escape.
- Incredible luck allowed Ron to hiss his and Hermione's way into the Chamber of Secrets to destroy the cup.
- Extreme luck allowed the trio to reach Severus in the Shrieking Shack in time to collect his memories as he died.

I do not believe *all* this luck can be attributed to Lily and James' sacrificial deaths. Many of these chains of events did not involve Harry directly and ended up being lucky due to things neither James nor Lily had any knowledge about, such as the location of Tom's Horcruxes (or even the fact that those existed). Also, while obviously Harry's parents would want him to survive any encounter with Voldemort, they would probably prefer he not have to deal with him in the first place - I'd say not being endangered by Voldemort at all would be very much in line with Lily's dying pleas. No, I think these many chains of unlikely coincidences, all of which were significant, maybe crucial, for the outcome of Harry surviving the final destruction of Tom of the 8-part soul came from an older and deeper source - this is the action of the capricious gods of the Potterverse, also known in this forum as "Prophecy Demons".

The Demons sent a  prophecy. Sybil Trelawney was the unknowing vessel that delivered it. But it was no chance that the prophecy was made in the presence of Albus Dumbledore, who knew more than anyone else about the Dark Lord in question, nor was it by chance that it was overheard by Severus Snape, a Marked servant of same. The Demons were setting up a test. And both that were put to it failed it.

The prophecy would have played out one way or another. It could mean any of many different interpretations (for some examples see Voldemort's interpretation of the Prophecy ), thus at the time it was made it could lead to many possible outcomes. The outcome that got realized depended for the greatest part on the choices of 3 principals: Albus, Severus, and then Tom, once he heard the prophecy and arrived at his own conclusions regarding its meaning. 

Sunny Skywalker gave us the Demons' rules here. 
Severus delivered the overheard prophecy hoping to benefit from it in some way (whether by rising in his position among the DEs, perhaps hoping to be able to protect Lily as the Dark Lord's Most Trusted Servant, or perhaps hoping to cause Tom to make a critical error that would end his own enslavement). Therefore the prophecy ended up leading to the death of the one person he was willing to die to protect, to the doubling of his enslavement (now to 2 Masters, at double the price!), and to his own death.

Albus let the prophecy escape (by letting Severus go un-Obliviated) and then either delivered it to the Department of Mysteries or avoided destroying the record (if such records are generated automatically). He later barely made a half-hearted effort to protect his own followers who were being targeted because of the prophecy, and in fact at least in some way made them more vulnerable - possibly in hope to hurry it along. As a result he got saddled with the responsibility for a Dark-Magic -damaged child, and as he failed to confront his treatment of said child he ended up losing influence, becoming marginalized, and eventually dying before seeing the prophecy come to fruition.

And then Tom himself - when he acted to avert the prophecy he sealed his fate and defined the terms according to which the prophecy would be fulfilled. The Chosen One was Tom's to choose - anyone he decided to eliminate *because* he believed them to be the prophesied one would become so - the Demons would find a way. 

As for Harry - until the end of his 5th year at Hogwarts he was unaware of the prophecy. But once he learned of it he never became obsessed with it (he had plenty of other obsessions, from the Half-Blood Prince's spells to the Deathly Hallows). Perhaps the kindest thing Albus did for him in this regard was to minimize the importance of the prophecy as such. Because if Harry had prioritized making the prophecy come true or used it as a guideline the Demons would have likely punished him (most likely by having both him and Tom destroyed in the end).

None of this negates or diminishes the luck conferred directly by the deaths of Harry's parents, nor the possible amplifying effects of Severus' moral sacrifices, as explored by Terri Testing in Greater Love. The choices of individuals entangled in this saga shape its details as it unfolds. The prophecy as worded does not ensure success, it merely gives a chance. It does not speak of the one who would vanquish the Dark Lord but merely of the one with the power to do so. Even a successful vanquishment may take various forms (does Harry survive? How many others die until then? What other impacts are there on society?), thus the outcome depends on people's chosen actions. That Lily, James, and Severus made all these sacrifices made Harry lucky enough to pull through and survive. (Note that after Severus killed Albus the frequency of luck-driven events increased significantly - is that a sign that Albus was correct in thinking luck would be conferred on the Horcrux hunt through this act?)

Which brings us to the question of another odd case. Regulus Black. Many of us have wondered why he chose to die, rather than be saved by Kreacher and live securely in the protected Black family home. We know he figured out that the locket left by Tom in the basin was a Horcrux. It seems like it took him a month of research to find that out. Also, it seems he did not find out how a Horcrux could be destroyed, though his note expressed confidence that would eventually happen. I propose that what Regulus learned during that month of research was not just about Horcruxes, but also about sacrificial magic. And since he was not able to find a direct way to destroy a Horcrux, he was hoping to help that happen by other means - by sacrificing himself, thus granting luck to the project.
 
The capricious gods accepted his sacrifice. We know that because when he died in 1979 he left a note addressed to the Dark Lord that mentioned 'I face death in the hope that when you meet your match you will be mortal once more'. The Demons, knowing that simply destroying one Horcrux would not be enough to satisfy Regulus' dying wish responded by sending a prophecy that spoke of one who would be the Dark Lord's equal, and thus sent the whole ball rolling. Kreacher was right, everything was thanks to brave Master Regulus.