death to capslock

Hmmm ... except the two mistakes are wholly different in the 'severity' of the error.

Sirius was one supposed Death Eater out of tens or hundreds. Making a mistake and saying that Sirius was (also) a Slytherin is a case of incorrectly attributing the House of one Death Eater out of many. If there were a hundred Death Eaters then Hagrid's error rate, the 'gravity' of his mistake in this case, was something like one percent. A mistake that's easy to make. Almost negligible, we get the idea, practically all the bad guys are Slytherins.

But the James/Lily thing - that's specific. It's a fact that's tailored to those two and no-one else. Impossible to get wrong unless you're really really stupid.

In terms of (a) the probability of making the mistake and (b) the 'incorrectness' of the mistake I think the thing with Sirius is much more condonable, acceptable, understandable and possible than the one about James and Lily being Head students.

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Sirius wasn't just a (supposed) random death eater, though. He was a member of the OotP (of which Hagrid was also a member) and James Potter's best friend. He and James were notorious for harassing Slytherins while at Hogwarts. He stood out as one of the very few Blacks who wasn't sorted into Slytherin.

Hagrid might very well believe that Sirius was mis-sorted and should have been a Slytherin, but he would have to be very very stupid to have truly forgotten that Sirius was a Gryffindor.

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Sirius wasn't just a (supposed) random death eater, though. ...

Sure, but the question wasn't about Sirius; it was a much more general, paint-them-all-with-the-same-brush comment about Slytherins. With a hundred (or 60 :-)) of them around, all in Slytherin, it would be entirely understandable and very easy for Hagrid to make that mistake. "Slytherin? Bad house, that Slytherin". He just forgot about that very rare exception, Sirius Black. He was concentrating on Slytherin House.

But if Hagrid had been asked a different question - had his memory jogged - what do you think of Sirius Black? Why, I'm sure he would have said that Black was a bad 'un (despite being a Gryffindor).

Likewise, when he's focusing specifically on James and Lily, he tells us that they were Head Boy and Girl. No doubt about that. Thanks, Hagrid!

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How do you get a hundred? Even with gaps for people in Azkaban and dead that circle couldn't possibly contain more than 60.

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I wasn't sure about the number. While I don't have your command of the canon I *have* read a few fanfics which have all remarked on how an entire country could be cowed by Voldemort and a paltry few Death Eaters. It wasn't like Riddle assembled an army (despite what the final movie's trailer seems to show).

So that's why I was careful to say 'if'. IF there were a hundred.

Now that I'm completely exonerated from any "oh, maths!" accusation ... :-) ... what couldn't there be a hundred? Yes, I agree that there's nothing in the canon suggesting such large numbers. But is there anything that precludes it either? Is a large part of your proof dependent on ALL of Riddle's minions Apparating to him after his re-embodiment at the end of GoF? (Couldn't he have gone on a recruiting drive afterwards? In fact - wouldn't he?)

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Voldemort only having a tiny group of supporters kind of makes him less intimidating, IMO. Of course, I always thought Umbridge was a much more effective villain anyhow.

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I always thought Umbridge was a much more effective villain anyhow.

That's because we actually see her for more than five minutes!!

Plus she's not the complete idiot whom Riddle turns out to be in the final book.

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Good point. I got the impression that Voldemort died mostly because it was the last book and he was supposed to die, not because he actually messed up. Almost makes you feel sorry for him- the main villain is supposed to have a cool and memorable exit, right?

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I got the impression that Voldemort died mostly because it was the last book and he was supposed to die, not because he actually messed up.

Oh yeah.

I'm always entertained by those fans who protest that their 'Jo' didn't make any errors at all in lining up Harry and Voldemort for the big finale, because, after all, everyone KNEW that it had to finish that way. Who cares about whether the author actually orchestrated that final meeting in a fashion that made sense?

It's one of the "we'll give poor Jo a free pass" excuses that makes me slightly nauseous to this day.

Almost makes you feel sorry for him- the main villain is supposed to have a cool and memorable exit, right?

Yeah. Instead it was the opposite:

Worst. Villain. EVER.

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Who cares about whether the author actually orchestrated that final meeting in a fashion that made sense?

And if IIRC, it was made even worse by the fact that everybody else was just standing around and watching the two of them go at it. War, what war? This is more like a high school brawl.

It's one of the "we'll give poor Jo a free pass" excuses that makes me slightly nauseous to this day.

Especially since it seems to me that most other authors don't get this kind of free pass, and because she has gotten enough free passes for a years' worth of trips to Disney World. Admittedly, I gave her quite a few myself though before I came to my senses.

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Worst. Villain. EVER.

For some reason this scenario makes me think of the old elementary school taunt: I'm rubber and you're glue... This is probably not the right kind of feeling for the climax of a series.

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I thought we are talking about what Hagrid was thinking when he talked about DEs in 1991. Recruitment after his return isn't relevant. However even after springing out the Azkaban prisoners and recruiting Draco and Stan Shunpike (and maybe others) Tom only managed to get about 35-45 people for the 7P battle (we know 4 chased Harry and Hagrid, 5 chased Hermione and Kingsley; there may have been a larger group after Moody and Mundungus because they were Tom's initial best guess as to the pair with the real Harry, but even then, after Moody was killed only 2 DEs from there went to help the fight against Harry and Hagrid, so even if we stretch the numbers and say 10-15 went after Moody, 5 teams of 5 went after the others and a team of 4 after Hagrid it's still in my range). We can add Lucius who must have stayed home, Peter who was guarding Ollivander and maybe a handful at the Ministry - someone to monitor the floo network, just in case, and someone to monitor Harry's Trace. So around 50 total (or less if fewer people went after Moody).

Now go back to the graveyard - subtract 10 Azkaban prisoners and 2 known recruits, subtract Severus who wasn't there, but add Gibbons who died in HBP - we are at under 40 standing in the circle. There are gaps for the missing and dead, but Harry can tell the difference between a gap for one person and a gap for two, so at least some of them are standing next to each other. Play with those arrangements.

If there was major recruitment in the second war it was after the Ministry fell - I suppose some people jumped on the bandwagon or wanted to ensure the safety of their families.

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I thought we are talking about what Hagrid was thinking when he talked about DEs in 1991. Recruitment after his return isn't relevant.

True. But you then proceed to discuss the number of DEs in Harry's era. So, was there anything limiting or addressing the numbers back in the 'first' Voldemort 'war'?

Tom only managed to get about 35-45 people for the 7P battle ... Lucius who must have stayed home ...

Couldn't other DEs have stayed home? It's not as if we're told that Riddle was ordering every single DE to Privet Drive, right? It's just your assumption that most of the minions were assembled that night?

... we are at under 40 standing in the circle.

How do you know that? I've just skimmed through the graveyard chapters and couldn't seen anything that clearly gave an upper limit. A space for six missing DEs, a gap for two, etc, but no upper bound.

Later on we have this:

"And the Death Eaters? They returned?"

"Yes," said Harry. "Loads of them . . ."

I don't know if forty is 'loads'. Certainly 'loads' would support a higher figure.

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Couldn't other DEs have stayed home?

If Tom was desperate enough to rely on Stan Shunpike then any able-bodied and wanded DE was there.

How do you know that?

Based on the number at the time of the 7P battle, adding and subtracting as I explained.

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Based on the number at the time of the 7P battle -

Okay, so all based on the numbers of the 7P battle ... and your assumption that every DE was there.

If Tom was desperate enough to rely on Stan Shunpike then any able-bodied and wanded DE was there.

That's a wobbly inference that falls far short of what would be required for a rigorous proof. For example, if Stan was Imperiused - do we know for sure if he was or not? - then it would have the calibre of the wizard who was controlling Stan which determined how useful he was in the battle. Secondly, maybe Stan volunteered, eager to prove himself. Third, maybe Voldemort ordered a certain number of DEs to attend, first priority given to any DE who had had *any* experience or interaction with Harry Potter.

(I'm forgetting if the 'seven Potters' thing was known to the Voldemort beforehand, but even if not it would have been a reasonable criterion in deciding who would attend.)

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I'm forgetting if the 'seven Potters' thing was known to the Voldemort beforehand, but even if not it would have been a reasonable criterion in deciding who would attend.

Tom wasn't expecting more than one Harry, but he didn't know how he would be moved. He had to prepare for a move by air or by land, so he had to have enough people around outside of what he believed to be the boundary of the protected area blocking all possible routes. Ideally he'd want a human chain around the block in case Harry might try walking by in his invisibility cloak. He didn't have enough people even for that.

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madderbrad.livejournal.com - Date: 2011-05-22 10:58 pm (UTC) - Expand

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Danny Sparks came up with a neat quote from one of the graveyard chapters which supports your figure of approximately forty for the number of DEs left over from the end of the 'first Voldemort war'; she posted it elsewhere in this LJ thread.

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At the beginning of the duel in the graveyard...

“Expelliarmus”… and what use would it be to deprive Voldemort of his wand, even if he could, when he was surrounded by Death Eaters, outnumbered by at least thirty to one?

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Well, you've got to do *something*, otherwise it's a case of just stand there and be killed, and no hero/Gryffindor would make that decision.

So, yeah, as a priority, disarming the wizard who's trying to kill you there and then makes a lot of sense!

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lol, sorry, my point was that we get a sense here of how many death eaters were present at the graveyard. There were a little more than thirty of them there.

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It's a quote from near the beginning of chapter 34.

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madderbrad.livejournal.com - Date: 2011-05-21 02:58 am (UTC) - Expand

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'First things first', in other words. :-)

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Well, it is his signature spell, I guess. Surely he would have learned something better by the end of the 4th year though?

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