Speculation on Liquid Luck

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

This idea came up in an exchange with, if I recall, madderbrad, but for those who missed it there, here’s my theory on Felix Felicis.

Horace told his class it was “Desperately tricky to make, and disastrous to get wrong.” (HBP 9)

Old Sluggy is glossing over things a bit here because Dumbledore is so hot against any Dark Arts theory being taught at Hogwarts.



It’s potentially disastrous to brew Felix Felicis right. There’s at least one step that has, say, a fifty-fifty chance of blowing up in the brewer’s face. Fatally. And every attempt ever made to make that step less dangerous, shield against the possible explosion, or rework the formula, has resulted in a mess with no luck-conferring properties at all.

Because the brewer is purchasing the luck s/he’s infusing in the potion by taking that risk, in essence offering hir life for the chance of luck. Thus, while there will always be the occasional brewer who’s desperate enough for money or glory to try a batch, it basically isn’t available on the open market.

We can infer that it is not generally available, not for any money, for if it had been, Draco’s mother would surely have purchased some for him.

(Now that I think about it, this might have been the original reason for Tom’s recruitment of one S. Snape. Someone disposable, but good at brewing, to try a batch. If so, how bitter Severus must have been when he realized, and how motivated to prove his long-term value so the Dark Lord would take him off that project.)

Three guesses where Slughorn’s sample came from; he’s certainly never brewed any himself. Indeed, he never claimed to have.

Comments

[madderbrad.livejournal.com]

Ah, the abomination known as Felix Felicis. Another one of Rowling's one-book wonders, a throw-away gimmick that we - and Harry, and all the wizards - are supposed to forget about, for the convenience of Rowling's story. Like the powers of the house elves, who can bring to a halt wizarding infrastructure (train ingress, postal service), easily subdue wizards (Malfoy, Fletcher), Apparate through inpenetrable wards, survive death traps set by the Dark Lord himself ... and yet are restrained to using cleavers and other kitchen utensils in the final battle ... because otherwise they could finish the fight - the war! - with one click of their fingers.

Anyway. :-)

There’s at least one step that has, say, a fifty-fifty chance of blowing up in the brewer’s face. Fatally.

From where did you get this information?

(My apologies if there's a link in your post which I'm not seeing; my browser is partially incapacitated.)

Sluhorn's statement that the potion is 'disastrous' if made wrong, on its own, doesn't necessarily infer that it's *life threatening*. I can make a meal that is a culinary disaster but otherwise innocuous on the physical well-being meter. :-)

There was a huge cauldron of the abomination known as Felix Felicis in HBP, so certainly it didn't seem to be *that* difficult to acquire in the wizarding world (one doesn't normally have products worth millions of dollars in your average teenage classroom).

No, the reason why Harry & Co - or the death eaters - never thought of using FF to win the war was simply because Rowling couldn't think of a way to counter it, or properly incorporate it into her story, I reckon.

[condwiramurs.livejournal.com]

Terri isn't using a canon reference regarding the 50-50 chance of that step going wrong. If I read the essay correctly, that's part of the theory itself: from a Watsonian perspective, the stuff must be very difficult indeed to get hold of if Narcissa Malfoy for one isn't buying up every vial of it for her son, and wealthy/connected/desperate people like some of the DEs aren't dosing themselves with it right and left. Why would it be so difficult to get, for people with money, motive, and a willingness to use any method necessary to get it? Because for some reason it's so difficult/too dangerous/too SOMETHING to brew, or have people brew under Imperius, with any regular success.

Terri is positing that, Watsonianly, the reason for the low success rate and lack of eager brewers is that it is inherently, and necessarily, risky to brew even when done correctly because it requires that risk to "purchase" the luck it imbues. You have to be willing to literally sacrifice your life in order to brew it correctly, because there's a 50% chance you will die in the attempt. That willingness (not the death, just the willingness/acceptance of risk) is what gives the potion its power. That neatly answers the question of how such a potion would function magically to provide such incredible, at times life-saving, luck and the question of why the potion is so rarely used.

A fairly elegant theory, IMHO, terri.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

What a very nice restatement of my argument, speaking of elegance! Thanks.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Condwiramurs, you just made me realize something.

It cannot be brewed under Imperius.

The Imperius can force a brewer to take a certain risk. It can't make the brewer willingly accept it.

Moreover, most of Tom's (or anyone's) attempts to force people to brew it by other means have, equally, miserably failed. And Tom can't figure out why.

"Brew this or I'll kill you!"

Um. If I fail I have 100% chance of dying; if I succeed, a 50% chance.

Doing it right wouldn't be risking death, then. So I try my hardest, doing everything right, and "Avada Kedavra!"

The only way successfully to force someone to brew it, would be to threaten someone else. "Brew it or I'll kill your son!"

I really hope Tom and the WW haven't worked that one out.

[ioanna-ioannina.livejournal.com]

I really hope Tom and the WW haven't worked that one out.

Wow, can you see the plot bunny sticking his long ears over there?

I love your theory. It helps me with thinking about dark magic in my own world. Thx!

[madderbrad.livejournal.com]

the stuff must be very difficult indeed to get hold of if Narcissa Malfoy for one isn't buying up every vial of it for her son

And yet there's a cauldron of the stuff bubbling away in the Potions classroom, just a short distance from the Slytherin chambers. But we don't see Narcissa or anyone else trying to purloin the potion. Or even any significant "MUST GET IT!" reaction from the pureblood students.

One would expect those 'people with money, motive, and a willingness to use any method necessary to get it' to actually try and ... get it ... from Slughorn, yes?

But no. Because Rowling couldn't handle her characters behaving in character. They had to stick to her simplistic plot, eyes ahead, do NOT think for yourselves!

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Master Madderbrad is not being thinking about how wizards is not being logical. House elves is being slaves, but wizards is only ordering house-elves to do what wizards remember house-elves is being able to do. Only bad elf like Dobby, crazy elf, is being leting wizards SEE other things elves can do, because then wizards might be being ordering elves to do them. Elves is being having to obey orders, but if wizards isn't ordering, elves isn't having to obey. So good elf isn't being letting wizard see when elf is doing magic wiards don't know elves can do. Wizards is being thinking, elves is being dusting and sewing and cooking and cleaning and minding babies. Wizards is not being thinking, elf magic is more powerful than wizard, I can use elf in war. Because if one wizard is being using elf in war, all wizards will. And elves is being having to obey.

So the display put on by the Hogwarts line at the battle was a deliberate misdirection, a show right up there with Professor Snape's efforts to persuade the Gryffs he'd tried to poison Trevor. See how harmless and cute we are? In battle, all we can do is stab you in the shin!

Much better to have wizards believing that than to realize they can command beings who can break through most wizard castings like they are tissure paper, but who are constrained to obey absolutely their masters' direct orders.

That's my current theory on the elf-batttle behavior. But you're right, of course, the Doylist explanation is the correct one. But mine is more fun..

[madderbrad.livejournal.com]

Heh. :-)

It's funny how only Harry Potter is allowed to discovers how awesomely powerful the house elves are, and uses them - TWO of them - at various times to do his work for him.

Even the dark lord knew what the elves could do ... but then never uses them again.

(Rowling has Hermione try and explain it away - even Rowling must have winced over this particular plot gulf - as the dark lord thinking it demeaning to use them, or something. Even though he does. Once.)

I enjoy this Watsonian/Doylist thing - I've seen the words before, in skimming through posts in this community, but the overload on the words (viz the comment of condwiramurs, above) forced me to recourse to Google to find out what it was all about. I've always enjoyed the 'Watsonian' deductions here. Although sometimes it is a bit hard, particularly with the more glaring errors, not to see the big ROWLING WAS A TERRIBLE WRITER sign in front of one's nose.

But in this case ... more fun, maybe, but I don't think it hangs together. I mean, if *Harry Potter* could think to use a house elf - HARRY POTTER - then you'd think the purebloods who'd lived with the elves all their lives would have come up with the idea, just once or twice.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

He. First off, condwiramurs was right; the 50/50 chance is part of my theory, not a canon citation. The only canon citation to it is Sluggy's that I quoted. Which I do think suggests rather strongly that Sluggy means that it's not to be attempted lightly. We remember that in Harry's first-ever potions class Neville made a mistake. His potion melted a pewter cauldron into a twisted blob, filled the air with smoke, burned holes in leather shoes, and caused boils on exposed skiin. That's a first-year potion gone wrong. So in that context, "desperately tricky to brew and disastrous to get wrong" doesn't sound like my "the time I put a CUP instead of a TABLESPOON of vinegar in my vinegar taffy" cooking "disaster story."

It was a small cauldron, not a large one. If a "small cauldron" is comparable to a small saucepan or mixing bowl, that's perhaps a cup or two (I checked a saucepan). If 1 T lasts 4-6 hours, that's perhaps 100-200 hours worth of luck. Yes, probably worth millions if sold. But I don't think it was ever on the open market; my speculation is that it's the last of the batch brewed by Severus for Albus, way back before Tom's return when Snape's life could be risked that way.

To answer your real objection, yes, Mr. Doyle-ist, of course the real reason is Rowling's incompetence. No arguments there! And really, this is not the kind of thing you want to introduce, or why isn't everyone and her sister drinking the stuff--not everyday, she had an out for that (highly toxic if overused) but every important day?

Actually, I remember a great SS/HG story about Hermione trying to do independent research on Felix, and ODing badly. (Snape came in as her illegal ingredient supplier.) Long time ago though--I don't recall its name.

.

[madderbrad.livejournal.com]

To answer your real objection, yes, Mr. Doyle-ist --

There's that word again. I'm so glad I finally looked up what it/you meant with this post!

But yeah, sometimes it's (too) hard to detour around Rowling's horrible plot voids.