Snape's original defection, a question

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Something I think canon is silent on--I'd like opinions, informed or otherwise.

When we saw Albus send a white-faced Severus to Tom's side at the end of GoF with that "if you are prepared" comment, it was as a double-triple-quadruple-(to the nth) agent. Snape's life then balanced on his persuading a paranoid and enraged Dark Lord that he was really still loyal (or loyal again) to the Death Eater cause, but that Albus falsely believed Snape to have turned his loyalty irrevocably to him, and to now be only pretending to be a Death Eater in order to spy for Albus.

A very perilous position, particularly when both masters are expert Legilimens and know the other to be the same. The more one master trusts Snape, the less the other ought to, eh?

What does he see in your mind that I do not? What do you show him, and hide from me?

So--was this fiendishly difficult and demanding position the same as the one Severus was placed in when he originally obtained a place at Dumbledore's right hand as a supposedly repentant DE?

Or was the original assignment a little less complicated: that Severus was to approach Dumbledore as a remorseful Death Eater begging him for sanctuary at Hogwarts, the only stronghold still firm against Voldemort? In exchange for a pre-agreed--with the Dark Lord--flood of information on the Death Eaters?

And then stay there as a sleeper until Tom activated him?

If Tom had ordered Severus to do nothing but cement Dumbledore's trust until he explicitly told him otherwise, if Severus didn't regularly have to face Tom's interrogations and report satisfactorily on Dumbledore's doings, his position (both then and in GoF) was, while precarious, not as immediately lethal as we had thought.

Opinions?

Comments

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

I think the first bit of evidence to consider is that Voldy assigned Sev the task of getting the DADA position. This is and was a cursed position that could only mean a year in place at most. That means that at least originally, Sev was not meant to be a 'sleeper' agent. That may have been Voldy's orders AFTER Sev managed to get the Potions professorship, but before then he could only expect to be in place for a year. Not even BartyJr - whom Voldy considered one of his most loyal - was given a way to counteract the DADA curse.

Instead we have Sev, whom I doubt that Voldy saw as quite as loyal as he later viewed Barty, at least not after Sev begged Voldy to spare Lily. In fact, I feel the only reason Voldy agreed to offer Lily a chance was to have someone to hold as leverage over Snape's loyalty.

[oryx_leucoryx]

I agree. Severus rose to the position of most trusted DE only after the monumental failure of the mission to get Harry to obtain the prophecy record for Tom. Back in 1980 he was intended to be used for an agent for no more than an academic year, engaged in some mission (or a few) at Hogwarts. And even without his request for Lily - his record was rather minimalistic, as Bellatrix lets us know - so why would he be so exceptionally trusted? I'd say he was an older version of Draco in HBP, as far as Tom was concerned.

I don't know how often he was expected to report on his progress to Tom. But if we are correct in believing Albus found a proto-Horcrux in the ruins of the Potter home then there was probably at least one encounter between Severus ant Tom, in which Severus delivered said object (itself may have been prepared or selected by Albus, or at least approved by him).

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

I have trouble believing Sev delivered some object to be used as a horcrux without Albus trusting him later to be able to protect the knowledge of Voldy's horcruxes from Voldy. IF there was an object on site to be used to make a horcrux, then my guess is that it was Voldy's wand (which Peter apparently gathered up after the explosion).

I really get the feeling that Albus had no idea about Voldy making any horcruxes until after Harry got his scar.

As for Voldy trusting Sev to be able to hide info from Albus' legilimency, I'm not positive that Voldy was aware that Albus could legilimenize anyone. We don't actually know exactly when Albus learned the art. He doesn't actually 'need' to have known it when Tom was at Hogwarts because Albus' suspicions of Tom began when he went to give him his Hogwarts letter. There wasn't any need to actually use legilimens at that time, since Tom wasn't hiding anything. Therefore, Albus never needed to legilmens Tom, so we can not be sure Voldy KNEW he could.

IF he did, then I think he thought Albus to be inferior to himself. I do not believe that Voldy had any idea that Sev could use truths to hide his lies. And letting him know he could would be suicidal on Sev's part.

Now, all that said - there is also evidence that perhaps Voldy did know. That would be Bella's teaching Draco to occlude. However, even that might not be evidence. We do not know whether Voldy knew she taught him. I find it hard to imagine Bella doing so without permission, however, if she did it because she thought she was helping Draco block out SEV instead of Albus, then it might be she would do it without telling Voldy.

[oryx_leucoryx]

I don't see your objection. In 1981 Albus had no idea why Tom wanted a shiny old object with a possible historical connection to Gryffindor. He had no idea Tom was making Horcruxes. But if Severus said that was what his other Master wanted, Albus could make a fake sword and send it along. Then in the aftermath of Tom's disappearance Albus finds that the fake sword was half-way prepared to become a Horcrux (but the soul-bit ended up in the very wrong place). Severus was a delivery boy and had no idea what the purpose of the delivery was supposed to be, and never found out until his death.

[oryx_leucoryx]

I'm pretty sure Bella taught Draco Occlumency with Severus in mind as his interrogator. We see how little she trusted Severus, and as Draco's teacher and Head of House Severus was going to have many opportunities to perform Legilimency on Draco.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Actually, even if Tom DOES know that Albus can perform the intrusive form of Legilimency, he might believe that Albus would not. There are powers that Albus is too, well, noble, to use, remember?

Or at least that's Albus's reputation. And Tom at least partly believes it, or Severus wouldn't get away with diagnosing Dumbledore's greatest weakness as a need to believe the best of people.

And intrusive Legilimency, without the subject's permission, is most likely illegal, and is certainly immoral.

Albus, Tom might think, would content himself with looking penetratingly into people's eyes and sniffing out potential lies. At which, in Tom's opinion, he's no damn good, since he hasn't caught Peter in nearly a year. And Peter can tell him that he never snuffed out the Marauders' secrets, nor made any serious attempt to. (If Peter knows about Sirius's attempt on Severus, he can add, "not even to investigate possible attempted murder of one of his students by another.")

Indeed, Peter would be able to assure Tom that Albus hasnn't asked his followers to volunteer to submit to full Legilimency even though he should suspects one of them to be a traitor. (If Peter is aware--or Tom is--that Albus ought to be looking for a traitor. then Albus's failure to ask the Order to volunteer for such interrogation would seem like ethical restraint taken to the level of folly. Or perhaps Albus's merely so weak-minded as to refuse to think so poorly of any of his followers as to admit even the bare possibility of one of them betraying him.)

So yeah, all Severus would need to do to face Albus, in Tom's judgment, is to be good enough at Occlumency to suppress the feelings that contradict the lie's he's telling. Not hold out under a deeper probe, because if Albus buys Snape's sob-story at all he'll be too honorable to insist on verifying it, even if he could and expediency might argue he should.

And what Wormtail can do easily, certainly Severus should be able to manage!

Really, remembering how long and easily Peter deceived Albus cheers me right up here. Just in that we have a reason for Tom to be unsuspicious of Snape's success.

[oryx_leucoryx]

I'd split Severus' timeline as a spy in the first war as following:

- He defects in winter 1981 (or late fall 1980) - during this time he is fulfilling whatever duties as DE he had while reporting to Dumbles
- Tom sends him to get the DADA job (again?), a few months later - he continues as before, but now Tom is aware that Severus may be seeing Dumbles
- Severus starts working regularly at Hogwarts, either as Potions Master or as Horace's assistant - September 1981.

If there was a time when Tom was monitoring Severus regularly it would be the second phase. Not so much when he was supposed to be a new hire with regular duties.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

I love your nice, clear-headed analyses; thanks for this one.

There is another wrinkle, however; if Severus's cover story, given him by Tom, was that he was defecting to Dumbledore "with deepest remorse, fresh from [his] Death Eater days," it is possible that what seems to have happened with Trelawney might also have happened with him--he might have been hustled straight from his hiring/"defection" interview into sanctuary at Hogwarts. If he was playing straight defector, not supposed triple (actually quadruple or whatever) agent, that would be the only way for Albus to keep his "new" acquisition (semi-) safe.

But then there's Albus's assurance at Karkaroff's hearing that Snape "rejoined our side before Lord Voldemort's downfall and turned spy for us, at great personal risk."

Can we stretch that to mean (apparently, at least, to Tom and the other DE's) a deal like the one Karkaroff subsequently cut with Crouch? That is, that Snape supposedly surrendered to Dumbles all the info he had previously gathered about the DE organization, in exchange for Dumbledore's protection? And the "great personal risk" Snape took was that Voldemort or an enraged fellow DE might kill him in retribution (as Karkaroff was eventually killed)?

(Which risk would have been mitigated if Snape were at that time cowering within the wards of Hogwarts....)

Or need we read that "turned spy" as Dumbles admitting to Severus going back to the DE's AFTER his defection, gathering fresh info? If so, either Dumble's admission would land Severus in DEEP trouble when Tom came back, or-- we're sort of back where I started here, that he was already a quadruple agent, with both of his masters expecting him to report to the other, but expecting the balance of the reporting to work in HIS favor....

[oryx_leucoryx]

Rowling (and her characters) use the word 'spy' in two meanings: one is a person who brings information about the other side and the other is an undercover agent who performs actions for a side other than the one s/he is thought to be working for. IOW I don't think we can draw any conclusion from Albus' use of the word 'spy'.

Clearly once Severus started teaching (or TA-ing) he was no longer gathering fresh info. But it is hard to tell if he was gathering additional information in the previous months either, because we know from Moody that it took 6 months from the moment he was tipped about Igor Karkaroff until the latter was captured. So we don't know if the deaths and captures of Igor's partners in crime (which took place later on) were the result of continued spying by Severus or the result of information he provided back in January (or whenever).

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

There's another point about spying and double agents: if you act on information that can be clearly traced to a specific informant, you've betrayed the informant to the other side.

Bye-bye!

So part--even most--of that six months lead-time for apprehending Karkaroff, might have been Moody struggling to construct a plausible cause to start investigatmg the man that didn't brtray that Albus' had acquired s source within the Death Eaters.

[condwiramurs.livejournal.com]

I lean towards the 'already quadruple agent' version because I can't see how Severus could have talked his way back into Tom's good graces in GoF if he'd pulled a Karkaroff - he'd be dead like Igor. Any assurance of renewed loyalty he could make would be undercut by the example of his already having broken his oath and betrayed Tom despite all of the risks. The only possibly convincing gesture he could make would be to beg Tommy to Imperius him, and we know that Tommy didn't do that. Plus, we have Tom's own words to show that he considered Severus "a good and faithful servant", said in a context where he doesn't gain anything by lying on that point. So I read him as always having though Severus loyal to some degree, which ultimately necessitates the reading that Severus was always dealing with multiple layers of cover.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

No, I'm not saying that Severus really HAD pulled a Karkaroff. (Although he did.)

I'm saying maybe Tom ORDERED him to.

Primed him with a "tale of deepest remorse" and specificed (accurate) information to give to Albus to prove his change of heart. So Severus could be the viper in Albus's bosom.

[oryx_leucoryx]

OK, we do know something: After the Potters had removed Remus from their circle and went into hiding, Dumbles was still concerned and therefore offered the Fidelius as an additional line of defense. This suggests that Severus brought a report that meant Tom's spy was still having access to the Potters. Whether that was something Tom told him in private about how his plans wrt the prophecy boy were still on track or something he told other DEs (or all of them) about how soon he would land a decisive blow that would dash the Old Fool's hopes.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

We don't actually know exactly when the Potters removed Remus from their circle. I don't recall Lily's letter to Sirius saying anything (for instance) about how Remus cannot be trusted, etc. They may have been a little less close, since I don't recall him being mentioned at all in the letter and he's not standing right next to them in the photo, but we don't have anything that says they actually suspected him before the choice for secret keeper was made.

All we know is that someone supposedly close to the Potters (actually Peter) was allegedly giving Voldy info on the Potters movements, which was 'supposedly' making it difficult to hide and so they then chose the fidelius based on Albus' suggestion.

For all we know (and actually what I tend to believe), the only reason they suspected Remus was simply because they couldn't imagine Peter being competent enough to pull off spying.

__________
As for how long Sev was spying for Albus, this is another one of those times that I believe JKR has not thought it all though well. It is certainly before he gets the teaching position. There's no indication that there are ever TA's at Hogwarts.

And truthfully, Albus' attitude on that hillside when Sev defected certainly implies that he expected Sev to be going into Voldy's presence and gathering info - not hiding at Hogwarts. He's implying that Sev MUST do this as payment, if he wants Albus to actually protect the Potters!

And he says he's disgusted with Sev. I'd say they must have a working relationship for a while before allowing Sev in around kids. YES, I know that Albus has hired someone with Voldy on the back of his head, but Quirrel was already a teacher before his sabbatical and there isn't any indication that was thought to be a DE sympathizer before he left.

And I think we ought to consider Karkaroff as being pointed out as DE by Sev. Karkaroff was apparently caught before Voldy went to the Potters on Halloween. And Mad-Eye said it took 6 months to catch him (right?) - therefore Sev had to have been spying for Albus for a minimum of 6 months before Halloween.

Note that we only know that all the DEs that Karkaroff mentioned in his hearing were arrested or killed AFTER Karkaroff was caught. That doesn't mean they were the only ones Sev told Albus about. Karkaroff wouldn't bother mentioning any DEs that had been caught or killed BEFORE his arrest, since he knew the Ministry already knew about them. Therefore, Karkaroff was not necessarily the first DE that Sev mentioned to Albus and so Mad-Eye's quest to arrest him may not indicate the earliest date that Sev began spying for Albus.

IF we cross-reference the list of Azkaban escapees with Karkaroff's hearing, we might find someone that isn't on both lists and who therefore might have been arrested prior to Karkaroff. However, even if there aren't any that doesn't mean there weren't any arrested before him. They may have died in Azkaban before the big escape. It would be rather surprising if none died there.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Remus is not mentioned at all in Lily's letter. I take that to mean he was no longer part of their circle - He was not invited to celebrate Harry's birthday, he did not send his wishes, Lily did not think Sirius was expecting to hear from him etc, and this has been for a while (so why mention that he can't be trusted? That's a foregone conclusion). And the fact that he is present in the photo but not part of the group around the Potters has to be significant.

The photo was taken more than 2 weeks (but not a whole lot more) before Lily's letter, based on the fact that Lily thought Peter was mourning the McKinnons when he visited them for Harry's birthday.

TAs at Hogwarts - we know Minerva was part of the Transfiguration department while Albus was still teaching, or so it seems.

Karkaroff was caught after the death of the McKinnons but before the death of Evan Rosier or the killing of the Prewett brothers by Dolohov and 4 others, or the capture of Dolohov, Travers and Mulciber. I'd say Karkaroff was caught in late July or early August, and the tip-off about him was passed on to Moody around January of February.

Of the 10 DEs that survived Azkaban to 1996 we have the names of 7 or 8, the only one who could have been arrested before Igor is Jugson (if he was arrested at all). Bella's first arrest may have also been at that time, but we don't know. I agree there may have been DEs who were arrested and died in Azkaban. They'd be represented as gaps in the circle of June 1995 (because Tom didn't have the chance to recruit someone to take up their spot).

[oryx_leucoryx]

To clarify regarding Remus and the Potters: If the Potters had still been on good terms with Remus he would have been expected to visit for Harry's birthday, or send his wishes in some way if he couldn't attend. If the breakout with him had been something that happened shortly before the birthday I'd expect Lily to express her sadness over it. That he isn't mentioned at all suggests to me that Lily has come to accept the fact that he was no longer one of their group.

Re: DEs Severus may have reported on before Igor: Wilkes' death may have come before Igor's arrest. Of course Moody (or other Aurors) may have needed less than 6 months to get him, so we don't even know if Severus' report on him came before or after the report on Igor.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

And yet, to me, the implications of Lily's letter to Sirius show that Sirius wasn't at Harry's birthday either - otherwise why send a letter? I didn't exactly read it as a 'Thank you' note. And it sounds to me as if neither she or James has seen Sirius in a while. Hence Lily's belief that James is getting 'ancy' and would be sneaking out if he had the cloak.

The letter mentions Peter hanging around quite a bit, but nothing about his gift to Harry for his birthday. Therefore, I don't see why Remus' gift to Harry would need mentioning either. I see the mention of Peter's presence as more of an indication that it's something unusual or out of the norm, and meant as JKRs hint of his spying on the Potters' 'movements', rather than the lack of mention about Remus indicating he wasn't allowed over because of suspicion.

Why would Lily need to tell Sirius that Peter is over all the time IF Sirius was around to see that? I had the impression from all this that she hadn't seen Sirius since before the McKinnons died. Probably not since the Order Photo.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Lily doesn't say Peter is there 'all the time' only that he was over 'last weekend'. The only person who is visiting frequently is Bathilda. If Remus had visited during the time since the last they saw Sirius his visit would have been mentioned too. Lily is giving Sirius a run-down of what has been going on since then.

It is likely that the Potters used the cloak to attend the meeting where the photo was taken (my guess is it was the celebration of Albus' 100th birthday - had to be something significant for it to be the only time Moody ever met Aberforth until the time Moody showed the photo to Harry; possibly their next meeting was at Albus' funeral). That would have been when Albus noticed it (again) and asked James to borrow it. If so then the Potters hadn't been out of their home at all in some 3-4 weeks, enough to give anyone cabin fever.

Sirius must have already heard about the loaning of the cloak - Lily doesn't describe that, only that Dumbles 'still' has it. All we can know for certain about when they last saw Sirius is that it was before the previous weekend, the day of Peter's visit. Probably not a whole lot earlier than that or there'd have been mention of more than a single visit by Peter.

I agree Sirius hadn't been there since the McKinnons died. I am inclined to think his last visit was some 2 weeks before the letter was sent.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Mmm. Totally agree about Severus's rise depending on the fall from favor of those above him--in fact he told Albus that Draco blamed him for usurping his father's place.

However, what I'm wondering is whether he really was, from Tom's point of view, in Draco's position--with the caveat that the first young man was actually intended to succeed. (And if he didn't, well, he was disposable anyhow....)

Sent to Dumbledore with that tale of remorse and secret instructions, and left to discover to the old fool what a viper he'd nourished when he struck....

Rather than, as I've always assumed, entering Hogwarts already in the agent-doubled-to-the-nth position we saw in OotP, with each of his masters knowing full well that he's reporting to the other regularly, each giving the other enough information to make Snape look good to the other (and pretending for the time not to know the things Snape's told beyond what the other master authorized...), and each convinced Snape's true loyalty is to him.


The idea that the Hogwarts infiltrator's original mission might have been to to steal the final founder's heirloom for Tom (the sword, I've always assumed) adds an interesting twist, though..

Tom might have expected Snape to fail in his attempt. He almost certainly wouldn't have expected Severus to pull off such a theft without betraying his actual loyalties to Albus and making himself Azkaban-bait. But again, Snape was disposable. (In fact, is one of the most disposable of Tom's DE's--he has talents, but no connections, no one who will care if his life is carelessly thrown away.)

So if Snape apparently did pull that off, getting Tom the object while still retaining the old fool's trust, surely that unexpected competence would have raised Snape in Tom's estimation?

[oryx_leucoryx]

So if Snape apparently did pull that off, getting Tom the object while still retaining the old fool's trust, surely that unexpected competence would have raised Snape in Tom's estimation?

And how much of a difference would that make? Remember Barty. (And Bella, for that matter.)

Yes, if the boy succeeds all it means is that he gets additional assignments.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

I didn't say, did I, that being raised in Tom's estimation was a GOOD thing...?

I do think Chuck and Lance, the Random Death Eaters, had the right idea of it--stay at the back of the herd and try to go unnoticed!

Not just additional assignments--more lethal ones. I'm sure part of the point of the Death Eaters was for Tom to collect, evaluate, and eliminate potential rivals.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Ah. But see, I've thought for years that Sev's original role was to be Dumbledore's assassin. Lucius (via his father's connections with the Hogwarts Board of Governors) was to deploy the diary to create a state of emergency at Hogwarts, Severus was to kill Dumbledore at the height of the crisis, at the same time other DE's struck at the Ministry.... All this immediately, perhaps, after Tom took care of that pesky prophesied Vanquisher.

So no, not a sleeper in the sense of someone waiting *indefinitely* to be activated. Tom expected to make full use of him before his expiration date. But still, not expected to make regular interim reports to his Dark Lord after he'd wormed his way into Dumbledore's confidence.

As to how Tom viewed Sev's loyalty post Snape's askiing for Lily's life, I don't think suspicion inevitable. It rather depends how Sev approached the issue. Obviously, if he threw himself at Tom's feet and begged, "Spare the woman I love, my Lord, and I'll do anything you ask," Tom's response would be, "You're not already? Crucio!"

If, however, Sev said something along the lines of, "The best revenge I can imagine against Potter would be to rape his widow on his grave," well, I don't think that suggestion would lead Tom to conclude that Sev's feelings for Lily were such as to lead Snape to betray the Death Eaters, even if Tom did guess that feelings regarding Mrs. Potter played a role along with Snape's known animosity for Mr. Potter.

[sunnyskywalker]

I'll add another possible mission to the pile, one which would require reporting to Voldemort - but only once: getting access to the Hogwarts Quill. Once Voldemort heard the prophecy, scanning the Prophet for birth announcements would be the first obvious way to check for any babies born "as the seventh month dies," but could he be sure he had found all the potential candidates? Especially since he knows that Dumbledore almost certainly knows that he knows that part of the prophecy, and could reasonably be expected to instruct his followers to keep their personal details quiet "for security reasons" (even if he didn't tell them exactly why). Best to check the impartial recorder of all British magical children, which will at least take care of the most accessible pool of Chosen One candidates. (Maybe Karkaroff started at Durmstrang originally to get access to his own region's equivalent, who knows?) However, the Hogwarts staff who have access to the Quill tend to stay at Hogwarts most of the year (some of them maybe all year, if they don't maintain a separate residence for summers and/or want to stay somewhere secure during the height of Voldemort's power), so it's hard to Imperius one of them to take a peek. Not that he couldn't have finagled a way with a little time and effort, but if he's now got an agent on site anyway...

So, get Snape to check the Quill records and meet or send a message with a list of candidates (and anything else useful he might have picked up) - and then keep his head down and wait until he gets the signal to kill Dumbledore.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

I like the idea of the quill, and it might have possibly been one of Voldy's ideas when he originally told Sev to get the DADA job. However, Voldy decided on his own which family to attack at least 5-6 months before Sev actually began teaching, and possibly even earlier than that depending on exactly when one believes Sev went to Albus to ask him to protect the Potters. So, he presumably found his potential prophecy boys in some other manner.

It IS still possible I suppose, as long as Voldy wants Sev to view the quill's list while at the castle BEFORE he actually becomes a teacher - say after an interview? Like Voldy himself did when he hid the diadem. But if that had happened, then I doubt Sev would have actually told Voldy about Harry being on the list.

Also, I'm undecided whether or not the child's name goes down at birth or at the first sign of magic. IF it's at the first sign of magic, then I can understand Voldy waiting so long to go after the Potters (a bit). But then why would Neville have ever been a possible choice? I cannot imagine his relatives trying to spook him into magic, if babyNeville had performed it already. I suppose they were trying to get him to 'unblock' himself, after the trauma of his parents?

[oryx_leucoryx]

Tom decided on Harry over Neville before Severus had a chance to be anywhere near the quill, but what sunnyskywalker is proposing is that Tom wanted Severus to find out if there wasn't a third candidate he might choose over Harry (and wouldn't Severus be eager for this task?). Suppose Tom's original information came from St Mungo's, there could have been a third witch who gave birth that day, who like Tom's own mother was living outside of wizarding society.

As for when a child gets listed - jodel proposed that most magical children perform unintentional magic during their birth, in response to the stress.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

I've had a thought about the idea of Sev taking a peek at the 'quill' - what does it say that Sybil's job interview took place at the HogsHead? Is it possible that after Voldy's interview for the DADA job (and subsequent cursing of the position), Albus then insisted that no future interviews would take place at Hogwarts?

Not only did Sybil's interview take place off-campus, despite it being during term (not summer holidays), but she also believed upon seeing Snape, that HE was there to get a job as well (or at least to ask for an interview?) One does not usually choose a pub when holding interviews for job applicants for teaching positions in a school for children. Perhaps the location was a convenience for Albus, not Sybil. I cannot really imagine a hopeful teaching applicant suggesting the HogsHead.

[oryx_leucoryx]

... And Aberforth is always on the watch for monkey business.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

Yes, the more I think on it, the more I question it. There's a new DADA professor every year and yet no one ever seems to know who it will be. That's seems to me to be either because Albus doesn't actually interview anyone until summer when no one else is at the castle OR because the applicant never comes up to the castle until they have the job. It seems unlikely that they could make it all the way to Albus' office and never encounter anyone. However, not impossible.

[oryx_leucoryx]

To be fair, Lockhart was the last person to interview for the job, after that there were no willing candidates (except Severus, and he was a different story altogether) and the teachers were appointed according to the agenda de jour rather than selected.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Like the idea that Tom' was the last applicant alllowed onto Hogwarts grounds for his interview....

[sunnyskywalker]

Yes, I'm hypothesizing that once upon a time, Tom did logical things like cross-checking information. Hard to believe after seeing how he ended up, but he was supposed to be smart! He's heard of two possible prophecy babies - but what other sources might reveal another candidate or two? Tom himself was born in a Muggle institution, after all, so he of all people should know better than to discount those possibilities. A third potentially Prophecy Baby might well have been born in a Muggle hospital, or at home, etc.

And if he found out Harry and Neville's birthdates through Prophet announcements or some sort of Hall of Vital Records in the Ministry, he'd also have to consider the possibility that Dumbledore had arranged for false dates to be sent as part of a trap. That might also be the case even if the information came from St. Mungo's, so long as the informant wasn't looking at a clock at the exact minute the kids were born and could possibly be off by a few minutes. Best to find out if you're being set up, yes? If one of your followers' kids was definitely born at 12:06 AM on August 1, and Harry's name comes after that baby's on the list... well, now you know Dumbledore's plotting something, and that he doesn't know you know.

If the Quill only records names during the first recognized magical outburst, at age two or eight or whenever, this doesn't work, of course, but if you take Hagrid's statement that Harry's name has been down since he was a baby as meaning "duh, you can't train magic out of kids, they're magic since birth and we have the paperwork to prove it"* - this is Hagrid, who tends to speak imprecisely - then the Quill records would be one place Voldemort would want to check.

It might not record birthdates, but it wouldn't have to - if Voldemort knows that the Malfoys' young son Draco was born on June 5, and (say) Ernie MacMillan was born on August 8, then he could just kill all the babies between them on the list to be on the safe side.

(And come to think of it... mightn't he have done exactly that? We only have Dumbledore's word that Voldemort went to kill Harry first, when in fact we only know for certain that he went to kill Harry before Neville. Voldemort was known for killing whole families, including children. For instance, Edgar Bones and his wife and children. We never got those kids' ages, did we? Might one of them have been a baby, born on July 28, 1980? It's not like anyone but Dumbledore and Severus would find that significant: Edgar was in the Order of the Phoenix, and so everyone else would assume that he was the target and the rest of his family was just killed to inspire terror, as an afterthought. There would be no reason to think that Baby Bones was the primary target all along. After all, they didn't think Harry was the primary target either. That was James and Lily, obviously, and poor little Harry was just part of the package.)

Given the British wizarding population, I doubt there were more than three possible Prophecy Babies, and it could be that Voldemort's cross-checking revealed that there only the two he'd originally heard of after all. (Still better to know for sure, though...) If Harry's class of 40 represents the entire set of births for a year, then there shouldn't be more than about 9 births per month on average, or (rounding) about one every three days, right? Though iirc births aren't distributed evenly and there might be more in summer, and an average of every two to three days wouldn't mean the births couldn't have clustered a bit toward the end of the month by chance, so maybe four or five isn't impossible.


*Registration at birth doesn't preclude the possibility that Hogwarts refuses as official policy to tell families whether a given child is on the list until they get their Hogwarts letter, to prevent any Squibs from having "unfortunate accidents," say. Explaining why the Longbottoms weren't sure about Neville for so long in this scenario.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Voldemort was known for killing whole families, including children. For instance, Edgar Bones and his wife and children. We never got those kids' ages, did we?

Well, we don't know if when Moody says "they got him and his family too" he speaks of Edgar, his wife and their children or Edgar, his wife and his in-laws that lived with them. But yes, there is a chance there was a small child included too. And the same for the McKinnons.

Given the British wizarding population, I doubt there were more than three possible Prophecy Babies

Unless somebody spiked the drinks at the Order Halloween party of 1979.

If Harry's class of 40 represents the entire set of births for a year, then there shouldn't be more than about 9 births per month on average, or (rounding) about one every three days, right?

40 births in 365 days is about one birth every 9 days, about 3-4 per month.

[sunnyskywalker]

Oh dear maths. But hey, I don't have a highly paid editor for these things and am coming down with something ;-)

I'll offer up another possibility, though: Voldemort may also have considered that the "seventh month" might be September, or the seventh month from the date of the prophecy if that happened not to be early January. So he might have killed all the babies born in those months as well, or was planning to. Just being a thorough dark lord!

[sunnyskywalker]

That is to say, I mean that rather than just considering it he had actually started on the project. That would take care of the "but why didn't he just..." problem: he did. Harry and Neville may have been the last two babies on the list, presumably because the Potters and the Longbottoms were the hardest to get at. (Some poor Muggleborn baby is probably recorded as a Sudden Infant Death Syndrome victim in the official coroner's report, and no one except maybe Muggle-paper-reading Dumbledore ever knew.) And he may have deliberately targeted several adults whose parents had thrice defied him back at school or something too - all those "random" killings might not have been random at all.

But maybe that's just my preference for a Voldemort who was actually clever once and has degenerated by the time we meet him.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Of course it depends which part of the prophecy Severus delivered. If it was really the first part, Tom would be after sons or daughters of those who had defied him three times, born at the end of the 7th month under whatever interpretation (including those born prematurely), in any year. If Severus delivered the tail end of the prophecy then Tom would be after boys or girls, born at the end of the 7th month (under whichever interpretation) who were still not born when the prophecy was made, but not necessarily children of people who had defied him.

Heck, maybe the reason Harry's year is atypically small is because those are the kids that survived the purge.

[sunnyskywalker]

Oh, that might work! It takes care of the problems with the "baby bust" theory (like wizards not actually seeming to react to crises by delaying having children - not just the Weasleys but active Aurors like Tonks and the Longbottoms, risk-taking Gryffindors like the Potters, plus all those other elopements Molly mentioned which don't sound like they involved caution and thinking years in advance and so probably led to a few babies - and maybe this is all due to it not being the kind of war where soldiers leave home and don't have the opportunity to have babies, not any psychological difference necessarily). It would also add to the general horror of the last two years or so of Voldemort's first rise - so many families killed, even the babies! He spared no one!

With so many of the adults who would have had magical children in Harry's year being on Voldemort's enemies list anyway, maybe even Dumbledore didn't realize how many of those dead babies were actually ones Voldemort saw as potential Prophecy Babies. Especially if a quarter of them were Muggleborns and Voldemort was smart enough to just sneak in and AK them while leaving the rest of the family untouched - might not even make the Muggle news.

Come to think of it, how many Muggleborns besides Hermione and Justin do we know in that year? There ought to be around 10. Are there? That might be a good chunk of the population drop right there. Something which could easily be chalked up to either a fluke of Muggles just not having many magical kids for a couple of years or as bad luck from the DEs killing enough Muggles that by sheer bad luck, they got some of the future Hogwarts intake too.

Between that, a few halfblood kids caught when their parents took them to their Muggle relatives for a visit or were otherwise easy to get at, a few families killed all together like the Boneses may have been (attributed to them being OotP members or blood traitors or any number of reasons), and adults who otherwise might have conceived children born in Harry's year killed off before they could do so, you can account for a lot of the difference between Harry's class size and the apparent norm. Maybe you'd still need a few families putting off kids temporarily, but it wouldn't have to be as many of them.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

Just a note - as far as 'canon' goes - Hagrid tells Harry that the surprising thing about Voldy being vaporized while trying to kill him is that Voldy attempted to kill him at all. This is either written extremely badly (as one would think the actual surprising bit is that Harry survived) OR it means that Voldy almost never killed children/babies. I agree it makes little sense, but it is what Hagrid said. Of course, Hagrid isn't always right either.

It should also be noted that Dean Thomas' father (according to JKRs old website) was killed by Voldy and yet nothing ever happened to his muggle wife or babyDean - despite the fact that they didn't even know the man was a wizard or anything at all about the war and so were not hiding in any form at all.

As for showing Voldy in a truly evil manner - I'm still incredibly surprised that Voldy didn't just AK every pregnant witch due to birth a child over that entire summer - just to prevent the possibility of children born early or late fitting the prophecy.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Also, "sleeper" in the sense of someone implanted to work their way into a specific position, possibly to perform a specific task. And who's not expected to report (if at all), until the set-up is comeplete of someone signals HIM.

The big thing is, it might be a way different set-up than Snape presumably faces at the end of GoF--expected to report loyally whenever Tom calls him, with Albus's knowledge, and then report back to Albus afterwards and satisfy HIM that he's really on that side.

If the instructions were "get Albus's trust, get into Hogwarts, pretend to be reformed, and then-"--
Either, a)
get hold of the Hogwarts Quill's record of magical births/ a designated Founder's artefact/ a way for Death Eater's to enter the Castle, and signal me that you're successful

Or b), wait for my signal, and then kill Dumbledore/let Death Eaters into Hogwarts

That's what I meant by a sleeper. As opposed to someone shuttling back and forth constantly between two Legiliments, displaying loyalty satisfying each.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Well, that would 'sort of' explain away the bad math of Severus bringing to the resurrected Tom 'sixteen years worth' of information on Albus. If initially he wasn't reporting to Tom, only performing very specific tasks. Still doesn't quite work, because the earliest Severus could have started gathering new information after the prophecy itself was after the hilltop meeting, so still not more than 14.5 years.