Snape's original defection, a question

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

Something I think canon is silent on--I'd like opinions, informed or otherwise.

When we saw Albus send a white-faced Severus to Tom's side at the end of GoF with that "if you are prepared" comment, it was as a double-triple-quadruple-(to the nth) agent. Snape's life then balanced on his persuading a paranoid and enraged Dark Lord that he was really still loyal (or loyal again) to the Death Eater cause, but that Albus falsely believed Snape to have turned his loyalty irrevocably to him, and to now be only pretending to be a Death Eater in order to spy for Albus.

A very perilous position, particularly when both masters are expert Legilimens and know the other to be the same. The more one master trusts Snape, the less the other ought to, eh?

What does he see in your mind that I do not? What do you show him, and hide from me?

So--was this fiendishly difficult and demanding position the same as the one Severus was placed in when he originally obtained a place at Dumbledore's right hand as a supposedly repentant DE?

Or was the original assignment a little less complicated: that Severus was to approach Dumbledore as a remorseful Death Eater begging him for sanctuary at Hogwarts, the only stronghold still firm against Voldemort? In exchange for a pre-agreed--with the Dark Lord--flood of information on the Death Eaters?

And then stay there as a sleeper until Tom activated him?

If Tom had ordered Severus to do nothing but cement Dumbledore's trust until he explicitly told him otherwise, if Severus didn't regularly have to face Tom's interrogations and report satisfactorily on Dumbledore's doings, his position (both then and in GoF) was, while precarious, not as immediately lethal as we had thought.

Opinions?

Comments

[oryx_leucoryx]

I'd split Severus' timeline as a spy in the first war as following:

- He defects in winter 1981 (or late fall 1980) - during this time he is fulfilling whatever duties as DE he had while reporting to Dumbles
- Tom sends him to get the DADA job (again?), a few months later - he continues as before, but now Tom is aware that Severus may be seeing Dumbles
- Severus starts working regularly at Hogwarts, either as Potions Master or as Horace's assistant - September 1981.

If there was a time when Tom was monitoring Severus regularly it would be the second phase. Not so much when he was supposed to be a new hire with regular duties.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

I love your nice, clear-headed analyses; thanks for this one.

There is another wrinkle, however; if Severus's cover story, given him by Tom, was that he was defecting to Dumbledore "with deepest remorse, fresh from [his] Death Eater days," it is possible that what seems to have happened with Trelawney might also have happened with him--he might have been hustled straight from his hiring/"defection" interview into sanctuary at Hogwarts. If he was playing straight defector, not supposed triple (actually quadruple or whatever) agent, that would be the only way for Albus to keep his "new" acquisition (semi-) safe.

But then there's Albus's assurance at Karkaroff's hearing that Snape "rejoined our side before Lord Voldemort's downfall and turned spy for us, at great personal risk."

Can we stretch that to mean (apparently, at least, to Tom and the other DE's) a deal like the one Karkaroff subsequently cut with Crouch? That is, that Snape supposedly surrendered to Dumbles all the info he had previously gathered about the DE organization, in exchange for Dumbledore's protection? And the "great personal risk" Snape took was that Voldemort or an enraged fellow DE might kill him in retribution (as Karkaroff was eventually killed)?

(Which risk would have been mitigated if Snape were at that time cowering within the wards of Hogwarts....)

Or need we read that "turned spy" as Dumbles admitting to Severus going back to the DE's AFTER his defection, gathering fresh info? If so, either Dumble's admission would land Severus in DEEP trouble when Tom came back, or-- we're sort of back where I started here, that he was already a quadruple agent, with both of his masters expecting him to report to the other, but expecting the balance of the reporting to work in HIS favor....

[oryx_leucoryx]

Rowling (and her characters) use the word 'spy' in two meanings: one is a person who brings information about the other side and the other is an undercover agent who performs actions for a side other than the one s/he is thought to be working for. IOW I don't think we can draw any conclusion from Albus' use of the word 'spy'.

Clearly once Severus started teaching (or TA-ing) he was no longer gathering fresh info. But it is hard to tell if he was gathering additional information in the previous months either, because we know from Moody that it took 6 months from the moment he was tipped about Igor Karkaroff until the latter was captured. So we don't know if the deaths and captures of Igor's partners in crime (which took place later on) were the result of continued spying by Severus or the result of information he provided back in January (or whenever).

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

There's another point about spying and double agents: if you act on information that can be clearly traced to a specific informant, you've betrayed the informant to the other side.

Bye-bye!

So part--even most--of that six months lead-time for apprehending Karkaroff, might have been Moody struggling to construct a plausible cause to start investigatmg the man that didn't brtray that Albus' had acquired s source within the Death Eaters.

[condwiramurs.livejournal.com]

I lean towards the 'already quadruple agent' version because I can't see how Severus could have talked his way back into Tom's good graces in GoF if he'd pulled a Karkaroff - he'd be dead like Igor. Any assurance of renewed loyalty he could make would be undercut by the example of his already having broken his oath and betrayed Tom despite all of the risks. The only possibly convincing gesture he could make would be to beg Tommy to Imperius him, and we know that Tommy didn't do that. Plus, we have Tom's own words to show that he considered Severus "a good and faithful servant", said in a context where he doesn't gain anything by lying on that point. So I read him as always having though Severus loyal to some degree, which ultimately necessitates the reading that Severus was always dealing with multiple layers of cover.

[terri-testing.livejournal.com]

No, I'm not saying that Severus really HAD pulled a Karkaroff. (Although he did.)

I'm saying maybe Tom ORDERED him to.

Primed him with a "tale of deepest remorse" and specificed (accurate) information to give to Albus to prove his change of heart. So Severus could be the viper in Albus's bosom.

[oryx_leucoryx]

OK, we do know something: After the Potters had removed Remus from their circle and went into hiding, Dumbles was still concerned and therefore offered the Fidelius as an additional line of defense. This suggests that Severus brought a report that meant Tom's spy was still having access to the Potters. Whether that was something Tom told him in private about how his plans wrt the prophecy boy were still on track or something he told other DEs (or all of them) about how soon he would land a decisive blow that would dash the Old Fool's hopes.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

We don't actually know exactly when the Potters removed Remus from their circle. I don't recall Lily's letter to Sirius saying anything (for instance) about how Remus cannot be trusted, etc. They may have been a little less close, since I don't recall him being mentioned at all in the letter and he's not standing right next to them in the photo, but we don't have anything that says they actually suspected him before the choice for secret keeper was made.

All we know is that someone supposedly close to the Potters (actually Peter) was allegedly giving Voldy info on the Potters movements, which was 'supposedly' making it difficult to hide and so they then chose the fidelius based on Albus' suggestion.

For all we know (and actually what I tend to believe), the only reason they suspected Remus was simply because they couldn't imagine Peter being competent enough to pull off spying.

__________
As for how long Sev was spying for Albus, this is another one of those times that I believe JKR has not thought it all though well. It is certainly before he gets the teaching position. There's no indication that there are ever TA's at Hogwarts.

And truthfully, Albus' attitude on that hillside when Sev defected certainly implies that he expected Sev to be going into Voldy's presence and gathering info - not hiding at Hogwarts. He's implying that Sev MUST do this as payment, if he wants Albus to actually protect the Potters!

And he says he's disgusted with Sev. I'd say they must have a working relationship for a while before allowing Sev in around kids. YES, I know that Albus has hired someone with Voldy on the back of his head, but Quirrel was already a teacher before his sabbatical and there isn't any indication that was thought to be a DE sympathizer before he left.

And I think we ought to consider Karkaroff as being pointed out as DE by Sev. Karkaroff was apparently caught before Voldy went to the Potters on Halloween. And Mad-Eye said it took 6 months to catch him (right?) - therefore Sev had to have been spying for Albus for a minimum of 6 months before Halloween.

Note that we only know that all the DEs that Karkaroff mentioned in his hearing were arrested or killed AFTER Karkaroff was caught. That doesn't mean they were the only ones Sev told Albus about. Karkaroff wouldn't bother mentioning any DEs that had been caught or killed BEFORE his arrest, since he knew the Ministry already knew about them. Therefore, Karkaroff was not necessarily the first DE that Sev mentioned to Albus and so Mad-Eye's quest to arrest him may not indicate the earliest date that Sev began spying for Albus.

IF we cross-reference the list of Azkaban escapees with Karkaroff's hearing, we might find someone that isn't on both lists and who therefore might have been arrested prior to Karkaroff. However, even if there aren't any that doesn't mean there weren't any arrested before him. They may have died in Azkaban before the big escape. It would be rather surprising if none died there.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Remus is not mentioned at all in Lily's letter. I take that to mean he was no longer part of their circle - He was not invited to celebrate Harry's birthday, he did not send his wishes, Lily did not think Sirius was expecting to hear from him etc, and this has been for a while (so why mention that he can't be trusted? That's a foregone conclusion). And the fact that he is present in the photo but not part of the group around the Potters has to be significant.

The photo was taken more than 2 weeks (but not a whole lot more) before Lily's letter, based on the fact that Lily thought Peter was mourning the McKinnons when he visited them for Harry's birthday.

TAs at Hogwarts - we know Minerva was part of the Transfiguration department while Albus was still teaching, or so it seems.

Karkaroff was caught after the death of the McKinnons but before the death of Evan Rosier or the killing of the Prewett brothers by Dolohov and 4 others, or the capture of Dolohov, Travers and Mulciber. I'd say Karkaroff was caught in late July or early August, and the tip-off about him was passed on to Moody around January of February.

Of the 10 DEs that survived Azkaban to 1996 we have the names of 7 or 8, the only one who could have been arrested before Igor is Jugson (if he was arrested at all). Bella's first arrest may have also been at that time, but we don't know. I agree there may have been DEs who were arrested and died in Azkaban. They'd be represented as gaps in the circle of June 1995 (because Tom didn't have the chance to recruit someone to take up their spot).

[oryx_leucoryx]

To clarify regarding Remus and the Potters: If the Potters had still been on good terms with Remus he would have been expected to visit for Harry's birthday, or send his wishes in some way if he couldn't attend. If the breakout with him had been something that happened shortly before the birthday I'd expect Lily to express her sadness over it. That he isn't mentioned at all suggests to me that Lily has come to accept the fact that he was no longer one of their group.

Re: DEs Severus may have reported on before Igor: Wilkes' death may have come before Igor's arrest. Of course Moody (or other Aurors) may have needed less than 6 months to get him, so we don't even know if Severus' report on him came before or after the report on Igor.

[hwyla.livejournal.com]

And yet, to me, the implications of Lily's letter to Sirius show that Sirius wasn't at Harry's birthday either - otherwise why send a letter? I didn't exactly read it as a 'Thank you' note. And it sounds to me as if neither she or James has seen Sirius in a while. Hence Lily's belief that James is getting 'ancy' and would be sneaking out if he had the cloak.

The letter mentions Peter hanging around quite a bit, but nothing about his gift to Harry for his birthday. Therefore, I don't see why Remus' gift to Harry would need mentioning either. I see the mention of Peter's presence as more of an indication that it's something unusual or out of the norm, and meant as JKRs hint of his spying on the Potters' 'movements', rather than the lack of mention about Remus indicating he wasn't allowed over because of suspicion.

Why would Lily need to tell Sirius that Peter is over all the time IF Sirius was around to see that? I had the impression from all this that she hadn't seen Sirius since before the McKinnons died. Probably not since the Order Photo.

[oryx_leucoryx]

Lily doesn't say Peter is there 'all the time' only that he was over 'last weekend'. The only person who is visiting frequently is Bathilda. If Remus had visited during the time since the last they saw Sirius his visit would have been mentioned too. Lily is giving Sirius a run-down of what has been going on since then.

It is likely that the Potters used the cloak to attend the meeting where the photo was taken (my guess is it was the celebration of Albus' 100th birthday - had to be something significant for it to be the only time Moody ever met Aberforth until the time Moody showed the photo to Harry; possibly their next meeting was at Albus' funeral). That would have been when Albus noticed it (again) and asked James to borrow it. If so then the Potters hadn't been out of their home at all in some 3-4 weeks, enough to give anyone cabin fever.

Sirius must have already heard about the loaning of the cloak - Lily doesn't describe that, only that Dumbles 'still' has it. All we can know for certain about when they last saw Sirius is that it was before the previous weekend, the day of Peter's visit. Probably not a whole lot earlier than that or there'd have been mention of more than a single visit by Peter.

I agree Sirius hadn't been there since the McKinnons died. I am inclined to think his last visit was some 2 weeks before the letter was sent.