death to capslock

I have been toying with the scenarios here for a long time, but got stuck in ways I could not resolve. So I decided to start posting and see if members of this list can help develop them.

In a previous post I claimed that Harry's luck in winning over Voldemort and surviving came from the work of the Prophecy Demons, hypothesized to be capricious mini-deities who run certain aspects of the Potterverse, especially those that have to do with 'ancient magic', the more mystical aspects of Potterverse magic. Others have proposed that one way these Demons interfere in events is by sending prophecies and then manipulating the fortunes of people who make choices based on knowledge of said prophecies. The rule is that a prophecy that is heard may come true in more than one way, and it ends up unrolling such that both those that seek to benefit from the prophecy coming true and those who seek to avert it fair badly, and it turns out the best line of action is always to do nothing at all based on the prophecy (but who can withstand the temptation?)

In this series I would like to try to work out how events would have turned out had one factor been different: In this case, had Severus Snape decided against reporting the overheard prophecy to Voldemort.

Terri Testing has a fic on her LiveJournal named 'Levicorpus' that starts this out: Severus realizes expecting to benefit from reporting a prophecy is a terrible move that could bite him and those he cares about, so instead he decides to Obliviate a small segment of his memory, just the overheard prophecy, before he goes back to Voldemort to report his failure to get a teaching job. In her fic the first consequence of this choice is Lily using a contraceptive charm in time to prevent Harry from being conceived, though of course, an alternative consequence might have been that Lily's pregnancy lasted a few days longer and Harry was born in early August instead - both scenarios are compatible with the Demons deciding not to punish Severus with the responsibility for Lily's death. In the discussion one idea that came up was that Severus realized he wanted Voldemort vanquished, in which case his most likely option would be to work with the DMLE somehow, with them being the legitimate anti-Voldemort force.

So here are some ideas I had to continue this scenario. There are many holes that need filling, and you are all invited to contribute.

Albus, expecting Severus to deliver the prophecy, would still hire Sybil as in canon, and would report the prophecy to the Department of Mysteries. Where Death Eater Rookwood works. In canon he probably never reported anything about the prophecy to Voldemort prior to the Godric's Hollow attack (or if he did, then for whatever reason Tom was convinced the fragment he heard from Severus was enough for his plans), but in this scenario luck might intervene. Rookwood might alert Tom to the fact that there is a new prophecy record labeled 'Dark Lord and ?' that only the Dark Lord himself can remove from the shelf. The date of the record would match the date of Severus' failed job interview. If Tom were to interrogate Severus he might find that Severus saw Albus going to meet with Sybil and was caught by Aberforth. He might at some point think the prophecy was delivered there, despite the fact that Severus retained no memory of that happening. So if Tom wants to know the contents of the prophecy his options are - go himself to the Department of Mysteries (he might try some other options first, such as possessing someone else, or he might try going there in disguise), or perhaps getting at Sybil (during summer break, when she is out of school?) or Aberforthn (Albus is clearly out of the question, I'm pretty sure). I think the Aberforth option is the only one that has the chance of delivering only part of the prophecy (without the 'and the Dark Lord shall mark him as his equal' part), and I fear for his eventual fate if that's how Tom decides to access the contents of the prophecy. If Tom hears the entire prophecy, would he still feel confident to attack the prophesied one? Is there a scenario where he gets the prophecy record (or Sybil) but still hears only part of the prophecy? Hmm. In the DOM battle, when prophecy records break we don't hear the entire prophecies do we? So maybe Voldemort gets the Prophecy record, but the Demons intervene to have him drop it, so he only hears a select part of it? (I am warming up to this scenario - frustrated Dark Lord with nobody to blame but himself.)

If Tom decides to act to avert the prophecy his most likely candidate in this AU would be Neville. We can't assume a scenario involving the Longbottoms would evolve the same as the canon scenario involving the Potters, because these are different people with different circumstances. Frank and Alice were trained Aurors, and whatever we think of Frank, there is no basis to assume he was part of a closed group that had been hiding things from Albus since school days. Frank and Alice were likely very close to Moody, who in turn was Albus' right-hand man and chief of operations within the Order. (He stands next to Albus in the photo, he runs the rota for guarding the DOM in OOTP, he runs Harry's removal from 4PD in OOTP and DH.) So the Longbottoms would be more likely to follow whatever plan Albus proposes for their safety. Also, as trained Aurors they would be more disciplined in sticking to whichever line of action is chosen. And Tom's spy within the Order is still Peter, who is not close to the Longbottoms and has no influence on them. So if Albus proposes to be their Secret Keeper they would take the offer and stick to it.

In that case the Demons would be somewhat limited, but there is still a way for the protection of the Longbottoms to be compromised: We know that the death of the Secret Keeper turns all those who know the Secret into Secret Keepers. So if the Demons want to give Tom an opening to attempt at averting the prophecy they can get Albus to die. It can be just a simple medical issue, unrelated to the war. (In which case the Elder Wand ends up masterless.) Or it could happen in a way that is more causally related to his role in letting the prophecy out - any ideas? Suddenly all the Longbottoms' close friends and family, whoever they had requested to be included in the knowledge of their secret, can reveal their location if they are captured and interrogated by Tom, or if a DE holds onto them as they Apparate to the Longbottom home - plenty of scenarios where the Longbottoms can be attacked by surprise despite following best security practices as known to them.

Back to Severus: Let's say he starts spying on Tom and the Death Eaters for the Ministry. I expect Crouch's DMLE to be more pragmatic than Albus in utilizing Severus' information, including the existence of the Dark Mark, so perhaps some arrests of DEs happen earlier than in canon, and at least while Tom exists in his original body these DEs are less likely to be able to talk their way out of Azkaban, the way Bella did at some point in canon (unless she managed to blackmail Crouch with a threat that someone was going to expose his son?).

At some point Tom would want Severus to apply for the DADA position at Hogwarts once more. Goal number one would be to obtain the sword of Gryffindor for Tom's last intended Horcrux. This likely happens while Albus is still alive. Albus would know that Tom has a collection of ancient wizarding objects (though he still has no idea what for) so if he suspects that DE Severus is after the sword he would find a way to let Severus steal a fake sword. It is possible that after getting the (fake) sword Tom would assign Severus to kill Albus (which would in turn release the Secret of the Longbottoms' location), and either this happens (making Severus the unknowing master of the Elder Wand) or Severus is somehow suspected in Albus' death regardless of his actual responsibility - either scenario would force him to leave the school. (Which scenario do the Demons prefer? I think Severus should be in their good books for his choice to suppress the prophecy, so perhaps they wouldn't push him too hard to rip his soul) I hope he can clear his name or at least avoid a prison sentence, because there is so much he can do via the Ministry (and I really don't want him in Azkaban, please no!). We see in Igor's hearing that Crouch was more than willing to cut deals with known murderers if it served him, so I see an opening for Severus here, even if he does serve some time (or perhaps Crouch avoids his imprisonment but holds it over Severus' head as a threat, sounds like him?)

With an intended Horcrux object and access to the Longbottoms Tom would plan his attack - probably shortly after Albus' death, while both Hogwarts and the Order are still in a state of confusion. I do not know what would cause him to give one or both of the Longbottoms a chance to sacrifice themselves and how that takes place rather than the 2 of them dying while dueling in a 'fair' fight, but somehow Neville ends up as a child-Horcrux, marked as Tom's equal, while Tom discorporates. Without Albus around to interfere, Neville is raised by his remaining relatives. (Does Wizarding Britain celebrate Neville Longbottom Day, or is it Frank and Alice Longbottom Day?)

OK, what do you think? Does this make sense? Any ideas for improvements?

So here is an idea for an AU scenario. Anyone is free to develop it into a fic, but we can just discuss the what-if:

Sometime between November 2nd 1981 and July 1991 Albus Dumbledore died suddenly. Maybe in some magical mishap, maybe a sudden heart attack, whatever. The important bit is he didn't expect this to happen and had no time to do any ad-hoc cover-ups nor did he have a chance to influence the choice of his replacement or to incorporate his death into some plot. The permanent replacement is chosen by the Board of Governors. If this happens early enough Lucius isn't yet on the board, if later he is on, but probably still trying to earn a reputation as an outstanding member of society who would have never joined forces with Voldemort willingly so I don't think he'd support anyone blatantly against the inclusion of Muggleborns. Anyway, the replacement turns out to be someone not as outwardly impressive as Dumbles - not so showy, with perhaps average or slightly above average magical performance, but a capable administrator with good organizational and interpersonal skills, but most importantly someone who cares about the students' well-being and education. It can be someone from Slughorn's network or even someone who thought well of Albus as long as s/he didn't have a chance to look too closely at how Hogwarts was run, but definitely not an Order member or any other close associate of Dumbles. Maybe an older, more experienced and less idealistic version of Percy.

The members of the Hogwarts staff are as we know them in PS (Care of Magical Creatures is taught by Kettleburn, Hagrid is still a groundskeeper), except for DADA. Depending on timing, Quirrell might be the Muggle Studies teacher. I think the DADA curse should still be active, so the teachers are still being replaced annually (we don't want the new school Head to have it too easy).

So I think this new person shows up and tries to run Hogwarts like a normal school. Some teachers object because that's not the way it was always done, some are relieved to have a professional in charge for a change. The handling of disciplinary matters changes. The inter-House politics change.

And then in the summer of 1991 Quirrell comes back from a sabbatical with a personally transplant. And one Harry Potter oddly doesn't reply to his acceptance letter to Hogwarts. (I doubt the new Head had a reason to look into Harry's situation of hir own initiative earlier, but maybe someone can make a convincing argument for that?) So what now?